Morgan Stanley: 10-Year Yields Have "Decisively" Broken Through The Risk Level For Stocks

By Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist

In our first note of the year, I cited three potential macro outcomes for 2024 with similar probabilities:

1. A soft landing with slowing/below-potential GDP growth and inflation falling toward the Fed's target of 2%;

2. A no landing scenario under which GDP growth re-accelerated with stickier inflation; and

3. A hard landing.