The Only Market Traders Followed During Saturday's Attack On Israel Was Bitcoin

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

The Iranian attack on Israel appeared as an iPhone price alert well before any news service would run the story. That’s how markets work. Crypto is the only liquid asset class that trades on Saturday, so those of us who never really turn off learned something big happened right around 3:45pm ET on Saturday (ZH: which is precisely when we noticed this first...).

Bitcoin dumped from $67,000 to $61,750 in a matter of minutes. Had the S&P 500 been open, it would’ve gapped lower by 3.0% give or take, in my estimation. Probably not enough to seriously stress the stop-loss mechanisms at all those grossly overleveraged multi-manager pod shops, but a reminder that markets are continuous until they are not.

And anyway, by the time of the S&P futures market open on Sunday night at 6pm ET, and then the liquid cash market open at 9:30am ET Monday, we’ll know a lot more, and prices will reflect the new information.

The Iranian regime posted this on X at 6:06pm ET, well after it initiated hostilities:

Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!

Crypto traders appeared to take some comfort in the Iranian sentence: “The matter can be deemed concluded.” Bitcoin prices bounced off the bottom. And while Israeli sources indicated they intercepted 99% of the incoming drones and missiles, they also suggested the Iranian attack requires a decisive response.

G7 countries planned a call for Sunday to coordinate a response. Biden pledged to stand by Israel. The US Navy sent an amphibious warship to the Eastern Mediterranean with 2,500 young Marines.

And those of us, many thousands of miles from the region, prayed that we restore a semblance of balance, stability, peace, through greater internal political cooperation at home, principled diplomacy abroad, and overwhelming economic and military strength.