By Vishwanath Tirupattur, and Serena Tang of Morgan Stanley
Later today, we will publish our 2025 economics and strategy outlooks, as part of Morgan Stanley’s biannual exercise in crystal ball gazing (available here and here for pro subs). For those caught up in the daily grind of data and newsflow, stepping back and imagining how economies and markets could evolve over the year ahead is a complex undertaking, and one we take seriously. At Morgan Stanley Research, these outlooks are the fruit of close collaboration, the culmination of lengthy deliberation and spirited debate among economists and strategists spanning the regions and asset classes we cover.
Our economists, led by Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, expect global growth to slow modestly but with the uncertainty and dispersion of outcomes rising. A decisive US election will usher in a range of policy changes with impacts that reverberate throughout the global economy. In the US, the drivers of growth change. In 2025, we expect growth to slow with (1) a fading impetus from fiscal policy, (2) the lagged effects of still-restrictive monetary policy, and (3) the imposition of new tariffs and immigration restrictions.
