Summary
At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell is likely to signal a 25 bps rate cut for September.
The recent deterioration in economic data has raised our confidence that the US economy is sliding into a recession or at least a significant slowdown in the second half of the year.
Therefore, we have decided to cluster the four rate cuts we forecasted from September 2024 through June 2025 in the upcoming four scheduled FOMC meetings: September, November, December and January.
