One of the bulls' favorite axioms is that as long as earnings are rising, nothing else matters - not rates, not the Fed, not multiples - as long as earnings are growing, the stock price will keep pace. And in the aftermath of the 2020 covid shock which saw earnings for most corporations reboot (and then be supercharged thanks to the Fed), this maxim has proven to be mostly accurate (especially so in the case of companies like Nvidia) thanks to earnings not only growing but beating stubbornly low bogies quarter after quarter.
But with the end of Q1 earnings season a few weeks ago, the easy earnings story also came to an end, and now it gets very difficult because as Goldman's chief equity strategist writes, "for equity investors, the high hurdles for the financial Olympics will take place just ahead of the July 26th opening ceremonies in Paris."
That's because consensus now expects a sharp jump in earnings growth, to the tune of +9% YoY in 2Q, the highest since Q4 2021. It follows three quarters of flat earnings expectations which in turn followed three quarters of declining earnings.
