With soft (or survey) data collapsing while hard remains stable and is in fact, rising, tomorrow's jobs report takes on extra significance, not only because everyone is very much on edge after Trump's reciprocal tariffs sparked the worst market selloff since the covid crash, but because this could be the first time hard data cracks under the pressure of collapsing (mostly Democrat) sentiment, and buckles, potentially encouraging the Fed to restart easing (which it was doing so eagerly 3 months before the presidential election to boost the Democrat ticket)... Or not, because the odds of a stronger than expected report are high, and only a big miss would have any impact on the market and Fed policy.
As for the outcome, the preview below present multiple perspectives, but as Michael Hartnett puts it, tomorrow's extremely important jobs report will be defined by one number: 100K. Any print above this, and recession will be avoided, affording stocks another rally; however, if the number comes below, all bets are off.
