- US stocks were mostly higher with sentiment underpinned following better-than-expected US Retail Sales data as the headline beat expectations to print flat and the Retail Control number surged which will likely have a positive impact on Q2 GDP. The data initially boosted the dollar and pressured treasuries although the moves were then faded throughout the session, while stocks continued their upward trend which saw the S&P 500 and DJIA extend on their record levels and the Russell 2000 once again outperformed its major counterparts.
- USD was flat on the day after paring the initial gains that were spurred by stronger-than-expected Retail Sales.
- Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand CPI, Singapore Non-Oil Exports, Australian Leading Index, Supply from Australia, Holiday Closure in India.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include New Zealand CPI, Singapore Non-Oil Exports, Australian Leading Index, Supply from Australia, Holiday Closure in India.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks were mostly higher with sentiment underpinned following better-than-expected US Retail Sales data as the headline beat expectations to print flat and the Retail Control number surged which will likely have a positive impact on Q2 GDP. The data initially boosted the dollar and pressured treasuries although the moves were then faded throughout the session, while stocks continued their upward trend which saw the S&P 500 and DJIA extend on their record levels and the Russell 2000 once again outperformed its major counterparts.
- SPX +0.64% at 5,667, NDX +0.06 at 20,399, DJI +1.85% at 40,954, RUT +3.5% at 2,264.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed's Kugler (Voter, Neutral) said it will be appropriate to begin easing monetary policy later this year if economic conditions continue to evolve favourably, while she added that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have become more balanced.
- US Democratic National Committee is quietly steaming ahead with plans to technically nominate President Biden weeks before the party's convention next month, according to Axios.
- US Representative Schiff warned of a wipe-out for Democrats if US President Biden remains in the race, according to NYT.
DATA RECAP
- US Retail Sales MM (Jun) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
- US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM (Jun) 0.4% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.1%, Rev. 0.1%)
- US Retail Control (Jun) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%)
- US Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Rev (May) 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
- US Business Inventories MM (May) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
- US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) 42.0 vs. Exp. 43.0 (Prev. 43.0)
- US Export Prices MM (Jun) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.6%, Rev. -0.7%)
- US Import Prices MM (Jun) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.4%, Rev. -0.2%)
FX
- USD was flat on the day after paring the initial gains that were spurred by stronger-than-expected Retail Sales.
- EUR recovered from the initial US-data triggered dip and reverted to around the 1.0900 level against the dollar.
- GBP conformed to the two-way price action and returned to unchanged territory ahead of UK CPI data.
- JPY slightly softened on the day with price action in USD/JPY choppy but confined to the 158.00 handle.
- Canadian CPI Inflation MM (Jun) -0.1% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Canadian CPI Inflation YY (Jun) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.9%)
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes initially slumped on the stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data but then spent the rest of the US trading session nursing its losses as yields eased to ultimately settle higher on the day.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices declined but settled off lows with prices pressured by post-retail sales dollar strength and China slowdown concerns.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.4mln (exp. +1mln), Distillate +4.9mln (exp. -0.5mln), Gasoline +0.4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing -0.7mln.
- Russia's Artic LNG 2 project cut natural gas extraction in May by almost three quarters from April, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking opinions for the launch of nickel, zinc, lead, tin and alumina options.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel's cabinet meets tonight to discuss a swap deal amid Netanyahu's position calling for more military pressure, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Iran's acting Foreign Minister reiterated that Iran "remained open" to resuming negotiations with Washington regarding the nuclear deal.
- US reportedly received intel of an Iranian plot to assassinate presidential candidate Trump, according to CNN. However, Iran's UN mission said the accusation of a plot against Trump is 'substantiated and malicious', while it added that Trump is a 'criminal who must be prosecuted and punished in a court of law' for the killing of an Iranian general and Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice.
OTHER
- Former President Trump is reportedly ready to hold talks with Russian President Putin on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict without any intermediary, according to TASS.
- Hungarian PM Orban said after talks with Ukraine, Russia, China, and Trump that it is generally observed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will "radically escalate" in the near future.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China’s property sector has made steady progress in H1 which underscores the effectiveness of policy support given to the sector through a period of necessary correction, according to Global Times.
- 12 EU members backed tariffs on China-built EVs and four voted against, while there were 11 abstentions in a non-binding vote, according to Reuters citing sources.
- BoJ accounts point to intervention of about JPY 2.1tln on July 12th, according to Bloomberg.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB Bank Lending Survey found credit standards were broadly unchanged at tight levels in the second quarter of 2024 although banks reported a small net tightening of corporate credit standards and a moderate easing for mortgages.
- French President Macron accepted the French government's resignation although the current government is to stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new cabinet is formed and Attal was renamed as caretaker PM.
DATA RECAP
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 41.8 vs. Exp. 42.3 (Prev. 47.5)
- German ZEW Current Conditions (Jul) -68.9 vs. Exp. -74.5 (Prev. -73.8)
