It has not been a good year for Barry Banister's predictions.
Last August the Stifel analyst predicted that after the "relief rally" in the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 would remain largely flat through the end of the year as inflation keeps monetary policy tight: "We believe the relief rally that was predicated on 'no recession in 2023' is now over." He got this partially right: the S&P - which was then trading at 4,500 - slumped to a low of 4,100 in late October, only to recover all losses and to close at a 2023 high just below 4,800.
By then, however, the bearish Bannister had doubled down and in early December, the Stifel chief equity strategist forecast that the S&P 500 would struggle to rise much above current levels into the middle of 2024, as investors rotate away from growth stocks and the Federal Reserve holds off from interest rate cuts in the first half of next year, and as a result he expected the S&P 500 "topping" around 4,650 into mid-2024. Well, he got the lack of rate cuts right, but was dead wrong on the growth stock prediction, and as everyone knows by now, just five stocks managed to push the S&P to an all time high of 5,500 in June, some 900 points above Bannister's forecast.
