The trend for 'soft' survey data is very much not the friend of the 'soft-landing' or 'goldilocks' narrative peddlers as it slumps from extreme optimism to disappointed pessimism (even as hard data has improved)...
Source: Bloomberg
And today saw more of the same as the Chicago MNI tumbled further off the 'weird' spike in November, deeper into contraction at 44 (from 46 and well below the expected bounce to 48)...
Source: Bloomberg
That was below all analysts' estimates and 3 standard deviations less than expected...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood was even more problematic:
New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Worse still, Prices paid rose at a faster pace...
So, in summary: slower growth, declining production, shrinking orders, falling employment... and accelerating inflation - is it any wonder that 'soft survey' data is disappointing - not exactly election-winning headlines.
