- US markets were closed for Thanksgiving Day.
- OPEC+ is reportedly discussing delaying an oil output hike for Q1 2025 and is to hold further talks on policy in the coming days after delaying the meeting to December 5th.
- IDF said it attacked a Hezbollah compound in Lebanon after it identified preparations for a rocket launch towards Israel which was the first such Israeli attack since the ceasefire took effect on Wednesday morning, according to Axios News.
- Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Japanese Unemployment Rate, Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Australian Private Sector Credit, Supply from Australia & Japan.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include South Korean Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Japanese Unemployment Rate, Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Australian Private Sector Credit, Supply from Australia & Japan.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US markets were closed for Thanksgiving Day.
COMMODITIES
- OPEC+ is reportedly discussing delaying an oil output hike for Q1 2025 and is to hold further talks on policy in the coming days after delaying the meeting to December 5th, while UAE's scheduled oil output increase for January 2025 is among issues to be addressed, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Russian President Putin said they consider Germany's use of unlawful measures against Rosneft assets to be unacceptable, while he added that Russia and Kazakhstan discussed increasing oil supplies to China through Kazakhstan.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said he asked the army to prepare for a strong war in Lebanon if it violates the agreement, according to Al Arabiya. It was also reported that Israel’s Chief of Staff said they must implement the agreement strongly so that residents of the north can return to their homes, while IDF said they detected suspicious operations that posed a threat to Israel on the part of Hezbollah in what is considered a violation of the ceasefire.
- IDF said it attacked a Hezbollah compound in Lebanon after it identified preparations for a rocket launch towards Israel which was the first such Israeli attack since the ceasefire took effect on Wednesday morning, according to Axios News.
- Hezbollah MP Fadlallah said Israel is attacking people returning to their villages in South Lebanon, while the Lebanese army said Israel violated the ceasefire several times on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Israel’s military renewed a curfew for southern Lebanon residents, restricting movement south of the Litani River.
- Israel’s Foreign Minister said Israel will finish the war in Gaza when it achieves its objectives and Israel is not 'intent' on controlling the civil life of people in Gaza, while he added that peace is eventually inevitable but can't be based on illusions.
- Israel's military ended protective restrictions on gatherings in areas of central and northern Israel.
- Israel’s political and security cabinet approved the extension of the authorisation for Israeli banks to maintain business relations with Palestinian banks in the West Bank for another year until the end of November 2025, according to Axios' Ravid.
- Iran is set to meet with Britain, France and Germany for talks on Friday relating to its nuclear programme, according to AFP.
- Iran informed the IAEA it intends to feed uranium feedstock into the eight IR-6 centrifuge cascades recently installed at Fordow to enrich to up to 5% purity, while the agency shared with Iran the changes required to the intensity of inspection activities following the commission of those cascades. Furthermore, IAEA verified that Iran had completed the installation of the last two IR-2M centrifuge cascades in a batch of 18 at its underground Natanz plant and Iran intends to install one cascade of up to 1,152 IR-6 centrifuges at Natanz PFEP to enrich up to 5% purity, according to the IAEA report seen by Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian President Putin said damage from ATACMS strikes on Russia was minimal and the choice of response weapon 'depends on damage'. Putin said if Ukraine becomes a nuclear power, Russia will use all means of destruction but noted Ukraine cannot make a nuclear weapon, only a dirty bomb, which Russia will respond to appropriately. Furthermore, Russian President Putin threatened to hit Kyiv with the hypersonic "Oreshnik" missile, while Putin said Russia is ready for dialogue with the US, according to RIA.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian President Putin’s promotion of the Oreshnik missile shows he does not want to end the war or allow others to try, while he added that Putin's actions are intended to boost tension and disrupt moves by Trump on the war after his inauguration.
- US President Biden said on Thursday that Russia's overnight aerial attack against Ukraine was outrageous and that Russian attacks serve as a reminder of the urgency and importance of supporting Ukrainian people in their defence, according to Reuters.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- RBA Governor Bullock said policy needs to remain restrictive and expects it will take a little longer for inflation to settle at target in Australia. Bullock also noted the RBA will be in a position to consider rate cuts at some point, as long as inflation continues on its gradual slowing path, while she added the Board can respond if inflation falls more quickly than forecast and the RBA does not need inflation to be at the target to cut but needs to be sure that it is heading there. Furthermore, she said if data suggests inflation is picking up again, that would be a red flag.
- Australia’s Senate passed a bill to overhaul the RBA board, according to Bloomberg. It was later reported that Australian Treasurer Chalmers said RBA reforms are expected to apply after the February meeting.
- RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby said they clearly signalled another 50bps cut in February and the New Zealand economy is turning a corner.
EU/UK
- ECB's Knot said they must take a close look at supply shocks to the economy and react forcefully if there is a risk of expectations de-anchoring, while he added it may be optimal for monetary policy to look beyond temporary supply shocks.
- ECB's Villeroy said interest rates should clearly go to the neutral rate and would not exclude going below the neutral rate in the future, while he added there is every reason to cut on 12th December and optionality should remain open on the size. Villeroy said for the following meetings, should not exclude any of them for possible cuts and they still have significant room to remove the restrictiveness of monetary policy, as well as noted that negative rates should remain in the ECB's toolkit.
- ECB's Wunsch said he sees the possibility of continuing to cut rates in a gradual manner and it would not send a good signal to accelerate the pace of rate cuts, according to an interview with Nikkei.
- German government plans about EUR 2bln in new chip subsidies, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
- EU Business Climate (Nov) -0.77 (Prev. -0.96, Rev. -0.93)
- EU Services Sentiment (Nov) 5.3 vs. Exp. 6.2 (Prev. 7.1, Rev. 6.8)
- EU Economic Sentiment (Nov) 95.8 vs. Exp. 95.1 (Prev. 95.6, Rev. 95.7)
- EU Consumer Confidence Final (Nov) -13.7 vs. Exp. -13.7 (Prev. -13.7)
- EU Industrial Sentiment (Nov) -11.1 vs. Exp. -13.2 (Prev. -13.0, Rev. -12.6)
- EU Selling Price Expectations (Nov) 7.1 (Prev. 6.5, Rev. 6.7)
- EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Nov) 17.7 (Prev. 13.3, Rev. 13.5)
- German CPI Prelim MM (Nov) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.4%)
- German CPI Prelim YY (Nov) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.0%)
- German HICP Prelim MM (Nov) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)
- German HICP Prelim YY (Nov) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Spanish CPI MM Flash NSA (Nov) 0.2% (Prev. 0.60%)
- Spanish CPI YY Flash NSA (Nov) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 1.8%)
- Spanish HICP Flash MM (Nov) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%)
- Spanish HICP Flash YY (Nov) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 1.8%)
