Vail Resorts At Four-Year Low Despite "Strong" Winter Trends 

Vail Resorts, the world's largest ski resort operator—including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 additional resorts across North America—has entered a seasonally favorable period for share price appreciation. Additionally, cooler and snowier weather trends are supporting resort openings as the ski season gets underway.

Let's begin with the latest note from Barclays' Brandt Montour, who provided clients with new details about the "US Ski Weather" at Vail's resorts.

"Latest snow depth in key Western US resorts (in aggregate) is higher this year versus its historical average," Montour said, adding, "Average temperatures have been colder than usual, with a greater number of days below freezing (<=32°F), in aggregate." 

The analyst said, "Early season snowfall in key western N.A. regions has generally been strong in November." 

Meanwhile, Montour noted, "The East hasn't received any snow yet this season, which isn't surprising or atypical. However, these resorts opened in mid to late November last year, and we believe MTN is targeting similar opening dates for that region this year (tickets have been on sale at select East Coast resorts for as early as November 22)."

The latest projected openings of Vail Resorts.

Snowfall trends.

Weather models show cooling is in place across the Lower 48 through early December. This is one reason why NatGas prices have soared in recent sessions. 

Private weather forecast BAMWX stated on X, "On this note, I suspect the fail of La Niña is playing a major role in preventing the Eastern/SE ridge that has been so dominant to be prevalent. Stretched polar vortex also setting up in the right spot is a big key too. Fun pattern for Winter lovers approaching."

"Confidence increasing of a VERY cold pattern developing to end November and start December. Both the EPS/GEFS is support of a widespread notably below normal pattern for much of the US. You won't find a much better upper-level pattern with ridging near Greenland and the N. Pac," BAMWX noted in a separate X post. 

Plus, there are major snow threats across the Mid-Alantic and Northeast to the end of the week. 

Favorable weather for Vail Resorts comes with shares trading at a four-year low...

Seasonally, shares generally appreciate in November.

Vail Resorts is a potential bottom watch if cooler trends hold.