After last year's brief (8 minutes) uber-hawkish speech, all eyes and ears are on Jackson Hole this morning as Fed Chair Powell delivers his between-FOMC-meetings speech.
Goldman sees a 55-70% chance that he is 'hawkish' - the Volcker scenario - reiterate a "job not done" message, indicating the need for an extended period of tighter monetary policy to achieve a decisive win against inflation, whatever it takes.
And a 30-45% chance of a dovish delivery - with Powell questioning the necessity of maintaining a 4% front-end real interest rate at the present time, and whether there is room to align with market expectations for 2024 by reducing front-end real rates by half.
One thing is for sure, markets will react one way or the other.
Watch Powell's speech below (due to start at 10am ET)...
