The Disney Grooming Syndicate’s live-action Snow White remake is looking like a box office bomb, according to various box office “experts.”
The reported budget for this walking public relations disaster is anywhere from $240 to $270 million, and that’s before promotion costs. All-in, I’d say Disney is on the hook for at least $350 million, which means break even will require a $650 to $750 million worldwide gross (theaters take about half of ticket sales).
Last month, Snow White was projected to open (domestically) somewhere between $65 and $85 million, which is only okay. But as the weeks rolled on and pre-sales became part of the estimates, those estimates dropped to as low as $45 million, which would make it the worst Disney live-remake opener ever; a record previously held by Tim Burton’s Dumbo.
Previous Disney live-action remakes have earned much higher domestic openings. The Little Mermaid (2023) $95 million; The Jungle Book (2016) $103 million; 2019’s Aladdin and The Lion King: $91 million and $191 million, respectively; Beauty and the Beast (2017) $174 million.
Dumbo went on to gross just $353 million worldwide and lost money, even though it cost about half what Snow White did.
To put this in perspective, when The Marvels opened in 2023 to $46 million, that was seen as a catastrophe. The Marvels went on to a humiliating $84.5 million domestic gross with only $121.6 million accumulated overseas. Disney/Marvel lost a fortune.
Tee hee.
Current expectations for Snow White’s current total worldwide opening weekend gross is $100 million.
To put that in perspective, last month, Captain America: Brave New World opened worldwide to almost twice that amount ($192 million) and is still seen as yet another Disney/Marvel disappointment. Currently, Brave New World is pretty much out of box office gas and sits at $390 million globally, which means it will lose a fortune.
Disney’s final hope on the public relations front for Snow White was the reviews. After two years of Disney and Snow White star Rachel Zegler stepping on one rake after another in what seemed like a coordinated plan to alienate every Snow White fan on the planet, a flood of glowing reviews might have saved the day. But, alas, that was not to be.
Disney’s last hope is word-of-mouth. If those who see it on opening weekend universally love it, that could reverse its current fortunes. When Mufasa: The Lion King opened last December to just $35 million and weak reviews, it looked hopeless. Then it went on to gross a respectable $253 million domestic and $717 million global. It was aided enormously by the Christmas holidays, but there’s no doubt people enjoyed it and spread the word.
We shall see about Snow White, and if it flops, we Normal People shall celebrate.
Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
