Trump Inspires More Economic Optimism Than Harris
Going into November’s election, Donald Trump has a commanding lead with the public on the economy, having successfully fended off efforts by Kamala Harris to convince voters that her leadership would turn the country away from the widely disliked Biden economic legacy.
Forty-two percent of Americans say the economy will get better under Trump, compared with just 34 percent who expect things will get better under Harris, according to polling released Wednesday by the Economist and YouGov. Similarly, 36 percent of the public say the economy will be worse under Trump, versus 42 percent who say it will be worse if Harris wins.
Keep in mind that these numbers are not necessarily exclusive. It is possible for someone to expect the economy to get better, worse, or stay the same no matter who is elected.
There is, of course, a huge partisan divide behind these numbers. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats say the economy will be worse under Trump, and 84 percent of Republicans say it will get worse under Harris. Among voters who say they are planning on voting for Harris, 74 percent say things will get worse under Trump. Among Trump supporters, 93 percent see the economy worsening if Harris wins.
There is, however, an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats and between Harris and Trump supporters. While 69 percent of Democrats and 73 Harris supporters say that they expect economic improvement if their candidate wins, 84 percent of Republicans and 93 percent of Trump supporters see brighter days ahead for the economy if their guy wins.
Taking a look at independents, Trump is clearly ahead. Just 25 percent of independents expect the economy to improve if Harris wins, versus 40 percent who expect deterioration. Thirty-six percent say they expect improvement if Trump wins, versus 33 percent who see the economy getting worse.
Trump Winning Among Hispanic, White, and Older Voters
Trump has a very wide lead among white voters and a narrower but still significant lead among Hispanic voters. Thirty percent of white voters say they think the economy will improve if Harris is elected, and 50 percent think it will get worse. Forty-nine percent say it will get better if Trump wins, and 33 percent say it will get worse. Among Hispanic voters, 30 percent say the economy will get better under Harris, and 36 percent say the economy will get worse. If Trump is elected, 37 percent say the economy will get better, and 33 percent say it will get worse.
Harris leads among younger voters and black voters. Thirty-nine percent of voters 29 and younger say they expect the economy to improve under Harris, versus 31 percent who expect it will improve under Trump. Fifty-seven percent of black voters say the economy will improve under Harris, versus just 19 percent who expect improvement under Trump.
Older voters, however, favor Trump. Among 30 to 44-year olds, 33 percent expect improvement under Harris, and 39 percent expect improvement under Trump. Among 45 to 64 year olds, 31 percent expect improvement under Harris, and 43 percent expect improvement under Trump. Among older voters, 34 percent expect improvement under Harris, and a 55 percent majority expect improvement under Trump.
Rising Optimism Among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents
One little-noticed aspect of economic sentiment is a rising share of Americans who are optimistic about the economy. Back in July, 22 percent of voters said they expected to be better off a year from now, 35 percent said they thought things would be about the same, and 22 percent expected to be worse off. But the share of people expecting their household finances to improve has been on the rise; and in the latest poll 31 percent see things getting better, 32 percent expect things to stay the same, and 16 percent say they think they’ll be worse off.
The rise in optimism is decidedly not a partisan matter. In July, 26 percent of Democrats said they expected to be better off a year from now. A month ago, 36 percent were optimistic. In the most recent poll, 42 percent expect to be better off. Among Republicans, the better-off share was 20 percent in July, 17 percent in September, and now is 23 percent. Among independents, optimism has risen from 17 percent in July, to 19 percent in September, to 28 percent now.
A pretty obvious interpretation of these results is that optimism has been rising along with what partisans see as the chances of their candidate winning. Democrat economic optimism jumped when Harris replaced Joe Biden as the candidate, and Republican optimism faded. In the past month, both sides see their chances as improving—which improves their economic optimism. The independent rise is very likely linked to expectations that Trump will win since independents are far more likely to expect improvement of the economy if Trump wins than if Harris does.
(Photo: Rafael AS Martins/Unsplash; Erin Scott/White House; BNN)
We’ll close by highlighting again the divergence between the views of voters and Wall Street economists. In addition to Trump having better numbers on the question of an improving economy, the latest ABC poll has Trump ahead by eight points on the economy and seven points on inflation. A Wall Street Journal poll of battleground states has Trump ahead by 10 points—50 percent to 40 percent—on the economy. Wall Street economists, on the other hand, think Harris will grow the economy faster and see lower inflation and lower interest rates than Trump.
On the economy, in other words, Harris is the Wall Street economists’ bet. Trump is the American people’s bet.
