Elon's Two Positions On Immigration

The Two Elons 

Near the end of my last post ("Christmas Conflict As Cracks Appear In The MAGA-Tech Alliance"), I mentioned that Elon Musk had walked back his call for mass, legal immigration.

I based that on this post of his, where he said he was only talking about the top 0.1% of engineers in the world (perhaps 10,000 individuals per year). 

On Friday, Elon walked back his walk back with this post. 

The Top 0.1% Or The Top 100%? 

There are ways to quantify the top 0.1% of engineers--you can go by their educational and professional background (assuming they're not from a corrupt country such as India, where these credentials can be gained by bribery). But there is simply no objective way to determine if a prospective immigrant is "honest, hardworking, and loves America". 

They will all tell you they are, in order to get here, so if those are your criteria, you are effectively saying you will accept 100% of prospective immigrants. 

This is a crucial distinction. It's even more crucial, given America's fiscal situation. 

Does Elon Really Want To Side With Neera Tanden On This? 

Predictably, Indian American Democratic operative Neera Tanden pulled the race card, but less predictably, Elon seemed to side with her. 

There are two reasons why Elon might want to rethink this approach. The first is that the experiment of mass immigration from India has been tried, in both Canada and Britain, and the results have not been good. 

Canada's Indian-born population has skyrocketed, and it has little to show for it economically. 

This is unsurprising when you consider that India has more Indians than anyone and has a per capita GDP of less than $3,000 per year. 

The second reason Elon ought to reconsider this is that the same people who want mass immigration from India and the rest of the third world also want to tax unrealized capital gains and otherwise enact policies that will keep him from ever getting to Mars. 

Two Signals Elon Should Note 

The incoming Trump admin has mostly stayed out of this conflict, but Vice President-Elect Vance did repost this on Friday. 

Perhaps Elon will get that hint. If not, the other signal he should note is Tesla's share price. It was down almost 5% on Friday, the worst performer of the Magnificent Seven stocks.

Tesla shares have skyrocketed since the election, as investors realized that with Elon's new best friend in the White House, the regulatory obstacles and lawfare against Tesla would stop. 

With Elon endorsing takes by Indian American Democratic operatives, maybe investors are starting to rethink that thesis. 

Tesla Drops Out Of Our System's Top Ten Names

One of the components of Portfolio Armor's automated security selection system is options market sentiment. After being in our system's top ten names earlier this week, Tesla didn't appear in Thursday night's top ten. 

Perhaps that's another signal, as options traders started to fade Tesla before stock investors did. 

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