Third-party candidates draw more from Trump than Harris
With less than a week until Election Day, the final Fox News Poll of Michigan likely voters finds Vice President Kamala Harris up 2 points over former President Donald Trump on the expanded ballot. That’s in part due to Michigan voters being divided over who would better handle the economy.
The new survey shows Harris with 48% support among likely voters, Trump with 46%, and third-party candidates at 5%. When it’s just the two major candidates, the race is dead even: 49% each.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump over the summer, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan. He garners 3% support, including 4% of two-way Trump supporters and 1% of Harris supporters defect to him.
Among registered voters, Harris is up by 4 points in the expanded ballot, a 6-point shift since July when Trump was up by 2 points. The July results were conducted shortly after President Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, but before she was conclusively the nominee and Kennedy dropped out.
All the Harris-Trump vote choice results among registered and likely voters are within the margin of error.
Given the presence of several other candidates, it makes sense that neither candidate is matching their party’s 2020 vote share – 50.6% Biden, 47.8% Trump. The conventional wisdom is that support for third-party candidates fades in the last two weeks before the election, which could further tighten the race.
The rest of the analysis focuses on likely voters and the expanded ballot (unless otherwise noted).
Some of Harris’ advantage comes from the small subgroup of independents backing her over Trump (44-35%) and some non-MAGA Republicans defecting to her (21% Harris, 67% Trump). Nearly 1 in 10 of each of these groups back Kennedy.
Overall, more Democrats back Harris (95%) than Republicans do Trump (90%).
There are gender and education gaps as well. Women back Harris by 17 points while men go for Trump by 16. White voters with a college degree back Harris by 5 points while Whites without a degree go for Trump by 13.
One tricky spot for Harris is among Black voters. While an overwhelming majority backs her (81%), this falls 12 points short of the 93% that voted for Biden in 2020, according to the Michigan Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA).
Overall, Harris’ best groups are suburban women, urban voters, and voters under age 35.
Some of Trump’s best groups are men, rural voters, and Whites without a college degree.
The economy has been the top issue this cycle and Trump has largely dominated on this front, nationally as well as in the battlegrounds. But now Harris is nearly even with Trump on the economy in Michigan. By just 2 points, voters view Trump as better at handling the economy. Earlier this year, Trump was up 11 points (among registered voters) over Biden on this issue.
Trump also does better on the Middle East conflict (+6 points better handle) and does best on immigration (+16).
Harris is viewed as better at handling abortion (+18 points) and election integrity (+10).
Among those saying Trump can better handle immigration, 12% support Harris on the ballot, while 14% of those who say Harris can better handle abortion back Trump.
Voters give Harris the advantage of having the right temperament (+10), helping the middle class (+10), protecting American democracy (+6), and fighting for people like you (+6).
The candidates are viewed about evenly on bringing needed change (Harris +2), saying what they believe (Harris +1), and being a strong leader (Trump +3).
"Harris has erased Trump’s lead on the economy, which undercuts one of the primary arguments for his candidacy," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "At the same time, Harris has built advantages on temperament and election integrity and, perhaps, positioned herself as the less risky choice for some voters."
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Since February, more than 4 in 10 Michigan registered voters feel they are falling behind financially, including 45% today. Another 42% say they are holding steady while 14% say they are getting ahead.
Republicans, Independents, and rural voters are those most likely to feel they are falling behind.
"While the race is close, Michigan has always seemed the toughest of the Blue Wall states for Trump," says Shaw. "The key development here is that Harris has won over women on the economy. We’ll see if Trump’s closing pitch blasting her plans to favor electric vehicles and regulate the auto industry is strong enough to take back the issue."
A few more things…
-- Since July, Harris’ favorable rating among registered voters is up 2 points while Trump’s is down by 3.
-- Over one third of Michigan likely voters (36%) say they have voted and go for Harris by 39 points. Among those yet to vote and are certain they will (54%), Trump leads by 18 points.
-- In the race for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a 4-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters (51-47%). Among registered voters, it’s 51-46% Slotkin – exactly where it was in July.
Conducted October 24-28, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,275 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (157) and cellphones (770) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (348). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 988 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital status.
