Expanding Who Gets To Vote
Earlier this week, the Nevada Supreme Court ruled that ballots with no postmarks that arrive three days after election day must be counted. Of course, the Democrats were happy about this decision, while Republicans weren't. In general, Democrats have been in favor of loosening standards to expand the voter rolls, because the additional voters added--low propensity voters, foreigners, etc.--are more likely to vote for them.
Even if this sort of thing is done legally, it can have negative consequences, as the X thread below by Alex Petkas shows. In ancient Rome, it led to a civil war.
Following that thread, we'll close with a note about betting on next week's election.
A Lesson From History
Background:
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
in the 100s BC, there was widespread discontent with the elites.
The oligarchic establishment was getting rich
Forever Wars, Petty plundering, government contracts, foreign bribes, importing cheap labor
Inequality skyrocketed
The Gracchi Brothers were the first to… pic.twitter.com/TXRTuFXh8z
By the late 90s, however, Rome's allies, the Italians, were demanding voting rights & citizenship.
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
Arguably, they deserved it - they'd shed much blood in Rome's wars
(That's one important difference w/ the US situation)
Marius saw opportunity in these new potential citizens. pic.twitter.com/upXY4vTYT1
But in 91, Roman establishment elites outmaneuvered Roman populists like Marius
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
The nobles tried to co-opt the Italian Allies by offering them citizenship.
Livius Drusus was the aristocrat pushing this.
Unfortunately, he was murdered. pic.twitter.com/qykl8fSjvP
With citizenship hopes dashed, the Italians revolted.
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
The incredibly bloody Social War ensued (91-88 BC)
Many Italians were offered citizenship (!) as a concession to keep them loyal:
A legislative fiat, made possible by the chaos & desperation of war. pic.twitter.com/0aSedpyRYo
HOWEVER...
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
Marius' "Empower the Italians" legislation would be passed in a popular "plebiscite" (a non-weighted popular assembly)
This bill thus enjoyed decisive support from the new Italian citizenry
But Marius added a KEY RIDER to the legislation.... pic.twitter.com/3Pi3hJzB1k
THE KEY point:
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
Marius used the popular citizenship issue ("Empower New Voters!") as political leverage for a naked power grab ("Make Marius general")
Classic Roman mob boss politics - I do a favor for you (O, my new citizen friends), you do a favor for me.
But it backfired.
Lesson:
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
Every serious Roman knew, new citizens, new voters, are one of the most powerful political leverage points.
It's never just about "What's best for Rome"
What schemes can you pull off with new voters loyal to you & your political party?
For the story of Marius and Sulla, see the Cost of Glory podcast episodes we did on them.
— Alex Petkas - Cost of Glory (@costofglory) October 28, 2024
Also see some very interesting posts on the Gracchi and their relevance by @Will_Tanner_1 , @bronzeagemantis . pic.twitter.com/6r87rKRSUH
Betting On Next Week's Election
In our last post ("Betting On The Election"), we mentioned a few a lower cost trades you could do on using a new market to bet on the election, Kalshi. Unlike PredictIt, they have no 5% withdrawal fee and your bets aren't capped at $850, and unlike Polymarket, Kalshi is legal to use in the U.S.
Depending on how you fund your account though (they offer a few options), it can take a few days before you're ready to trade, so if you want to trade the election, it would be best to set up your account now.
🚨The election is 5 days away!🚨
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) October 30, 2024
If you plan to trade on Election Day, DO NOT WAIT TO DEPOSIT!
ACH/Bank Transfers can take 3-4 days
Act now to ensure you can trade on Tuesday, November 5th. https://t.co/wEgDa7uu8L
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