Is Russia About To Launch A Decisive Offensive?
Two and a half years into the Russia-Ukraine War, the very idea of a decisive offensive seems unlikely, as the conflict has become, like World War I, characterized by trenches and battles of attrition. But the military analyst who goes by the pseudonym "Armchair Warlord" thinks that's all going to change. In a long post on X, he detailed why.
Russian Offensive Warning!
Tactical, operational, and strategic conditions are continuing to improve for the Russians to launch a decisive offensive over the summer. Let's review the state of the War in Ukraine: - Ukraine is hitting a demographic collapse point, with it becoming realistic to suggest they're reaching 400,000+ personnel killed in action. The average Ukrainian soldier at the front line is now an unfit conscript in his mid-40s with grossly inadequate training. They appear to be running out of realistic means to generate new recruits.
- Unlike Russia, Ukraine is actually running out of equipment and ammunition. Despite a continued influx of funds, arms shipments from the West have largely dried up. Significantly, the AFU may be largely out of Western deep strike weapons and/or the means to employ them - the last noteworthy ATACMS strike was a week ago and Storm Shadow left the chat a month ago. Ironically they seem to have run out of these weapons just as their sponsors gave them permission to use them on pre-2014 Russian territory, suggesting that authorization was given with the full knowledge that it would never be used in any serious way.
- Ukraine's remaining reserves have been engaged northeast of Kharkov and suffered very heavy casualties over the last five weeks of combat. Over that same period overall Ukrainian personnel casualties have approximately doubled, if Russian MoD reports are any indication.
- Russian strikes on the Ukrainian electrical grid over the last couple months have been mortal blows, with much of the country's generating capacity now offline. At this point, one more particularly ruthless attack could quite easily turn the lights out for good.
- The AFU front line itself is in dire straits. At least twice this week Russian battalions have simply massed and plowed through important and long-held defensive nodes with little real trouble. Extreme corruption has prevented the construction of significant fortifications in the rear to create fallback positions to contain a Russian breakthrough.
- The Ukrainian peace conference has come and gone. Significantly, Putin's public "take it or leave it" pre-conference peace offer has also come and gone. The time for negotiations is emphatically over.
- If Putin is to be believed, the Russians have three-quarters of a million troops at the front. Judging by the intensity of the fighting currently, most are in reserve. These soldiers are largely young volunteers with real training and developed combat experience.
- Lastly, there's a full moon in a few days and we're reaching the height of summer. Although predicting moves based on looking for ideal weather can be little more than tactical Tarot reading, it's a simple fact that the weather is as good as it's going to get right now. The Ukrainians kicked off the Hundred Days' Offensive around this time last year for a reason.
My main question is how much longer the Russians intend to drag this out before finishing things. A negotiated peace is off the table and conditions are set for an imposed one. I'm not sure how much more hedging his bets Putin really needs to do at this point unless there's some real 4D chess going on.
The Trump Factor
One thing Armchair Warlord didn't mention above is the U.S. election in November. Trump has promised to end the war "in 24 hours" if elected, and the simplest way to do so would be with a ceasefire, which would freeze the current lines of control. So if Putin thinks Trump is going to win and is serious about this, it would be in his interest to capture as much of the territory he wants before a second Trump term starts. Whether Russia is able to do so, is a separate question. Despite the Ukraine's enormous losses, they haven't cracked yet, and so far, Russia hasn't committed many men to its current offensives, preferring to tie down the Ukrainians and reduce them with air and artillery strikes.
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