Moscow 'Studying' 30-day Truce Plan, Makes Steady Battlefield Gains In Meantime

The Kremlin says it is "studying" statements issued by the US and Ukrainian delegations following yesterday's talks in Jeddah, and further describes Russian officials are waiting for a fuller briefing from the US on the proposal. The 30-day ceasefire plan calls for a halt to all the fighting on land, sea and in the air - which can be extended by mutual agreement, with a hoped-for path to a permanent truce based on negotiations in the interim.

President Zelensky in a Tuesday X post said the ceasefire will apply to missile, drone and bomb attacks "not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line" - though its as yet unclear what mechanism there will be to monitor this.

The joint statement issued from Jeddah said the sides "will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace." Thus nothing will happen unless Moscow agrees.

Washington has agreed to lift the Trump ban on arms and intelligence for Kiev, while at the same Kiev and Washington agreed on inking a deal on Ukraine’s critical minerals "as soon as possible".

Russian state media is meanwhile reporting that President Putin is open to holding a telephone conversation with his US counterpart.

On the potential for a new Trump call to discuss progress toward setting up negotiations and a truce, spokesman Dimitry Peskov said Wednesday, "We also do not rule out that the topic of a call at the highest level may arise. If such a need emerges, it will be organized very quickly. The existing channels of dialogue with the Americans make it possible to do this in a relatively short time."

If it happens this would mark the second call since Trump's inauguration, after the prior February 12 call. Theoretically this could lead to an in-person meeting between the two leaders if all goes well. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling back from the meeting in Saudi Arabia, and gave some remarks to a press conference in Ireland:

• Deterrence against future attacks on Ukraine will be a crucial element of future negotiations.
• The US-Ukraine minerals deal benefits both nations and deepens Washington’s interest in Ukraine, but “I would not couch it as a security guarantee”.
• European sanctions against Russia will be part of the negotiations, making Europe’s involvement in the process essential.
• Any truce could be effectively monitored, but “one of the things we’ll have to determine is who both sides trust on the ground” to oversee it.

Ukraine continues to hold little to no leverage, given Russia is fast taking back its territory in Kursk as of mid-week. Over a dozen settlements have been liberated, and by all accounts Ukraine forces are in retreat there, also as Russian troops are currently in the center of Sudzha town.

One regional sources says that the Russian advance has been swift especially after one particularly daring operation: "Reports over the weekend claimed that 800 Russian special forces had crawled for 15 kilometers through an unused section of pipeline, which once carried Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine, in order to carry out a sneak attack on Ukrainian forces in Sudzha," writes Moscow Times.

These developments mean that Putin is even less likely to agree to any temporary pause in fighting. In January statements he had warned the Kremlin will not sign off on any temporary truces - given Ukraine could just use it to rearm, resupply, and regroup. Moscow has less incentive to sign onto a deal unless territorial concessions are part of it, given that at this rate it can just keep advancing in territory, particularly in the Donbass.