There is currently widespread speculation in Israeli media that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon terminate Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, which would constitute a monumental reshuffle of his cabinet. The two have reportedly been clashing over war strategy, especially on what to do about the crisis in northern Israel, an area which has come under daily rocket and drone attack from Lebanese Hezbollah.
"The drafts of the agreement have already been drawn up … Netanyahu is preparing for Gallant’s dismissal in the near future … Galant will be fired by Netanyahu," Israeli news outlet Ynet reported Monday.
Gallant is reportedly wanting to avoid immediate escalation of the war with Hezbollah in the north, reportedly clashing with the army’s Northern Command chief Ori Gordin, who is calling for the government to approve a large-scale operation in Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah.
Gallant has also been at the center of a firestorm of controversy regarding achieving a peace deal and hostage exchange swap with Hamas. The defense chief is in favor of quickly securing a deal, which Netanyahu has resisted, preferring instead a military solution.
This political divide at top has also been reflected in the unrest in the streets, where protests of hundreds of thousands have raged in Tel Aviv for days and weeks. They are led by families of the hostage victims, who blame Netanyahu for stalling a truce deal.
YNet's sources have said: "Gallant has already received the message that there is an intention to oust him and replace him with Gideon Saar… The Prime Minister is close to making this decision. It has not yet been made, but it is close."
But at the moment, the Hezbollah question and Israel's strategy concerning what comes next is the key divisive issue. Times of Israel explains:
Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the head of the Israel Defense Force’s Northern Command, is pressuring decision-makers to launch a large-scale incursion into Lebanon, while Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi have expressed doubts over launching a war against Hezbollah, thought to be a more formidable enemy than the Hamas terror group Israel is currently fighting in Gaza, Kan and Channel 13 news reported Sunday and Monday.
According to the reports, Gallant believes now is not the right time for such action, and wants to give a chance to efforts to achieve a diplomatic solution in the north and a ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza.
If Netanyahu does sack Gallant, this could strain relations with Washington further. Internal Israeli cabinet tensions have also centered on navigating the relationship with the United States, and not jeopardizing arms transfers.
Netanyahu is about to replace Gallant with Gideon Sa'ar as Defence Minister. This could mean escalation with Lebanon, and it lowers the (slim) chance for a hostage/ceasefire deal. In addition, it will enlarge and fortify Bibi's coalition - perhaps until 2026. Utter disaster. pic.twitter.com/FpuDNvN70d
— Nimrod Flaschenberg (@Nimrod_Flash) September 16, 2024
The Biden administration appears to be favoring 'moderates' within the coalition government and the Biden/Harris White House would like to see some kind of ceasefire deal ahead of the November election, which would likely translate to a boost at the polls. But this appears very unlikely based on the way things are going in Gaza.