Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Let’s cut to the chase for a second. I know, you know, and most people around the financial industry know that we Austrian school guys are often “broken clocks that are right twice a day.”
Even as I come by my thoughts on the macroeconomy and stock market honestly, I can understand the criticism from people who are constantly bullish—who believe we are just fearmongers or outright “wrong” on a massive scale.
I trust that my readers and those who think in like-minded fashion know that I come by my opinions honestly. Certainly, those who have listened to me rant on podcasts for 10 years have to believe that the internal fire is burning organically and not, as some would suggest, just to “sell newsletter subscriptions”.
But for the purposes of this reminder, let’s just pretend I’m some evil, nefarious fearmonger who doesn’t actually believe in sound money and secretly, deep down, loves modern monetary theory. Let’s pretend I’m everything my worst critics say that I am—desperate to sell the mainstream public some scary-sounding take on markets and siphon people away from their “CNBC Pro” subscriptions. Whatever the hell that is.
I want you to give me zero benefit of the doubt because it doesn’t change the essence of what I’m about to say. This message could be coming from Stephanie Kelton, Paul Krugman, Ludwig von Mises himself, Ron Paul, Paul Volcker, or Janet Yellen. No matter what background it comes from, it’s going to have a ring of objective truth, and that’s what I want you to focus on.
So here’s the rub. I woke up this morning and saw a great post from my friend Ryan Sellers over at Open Outcrier, who made the keen observation that the Treasury Secretary comments about the economy needing to “detox” sounded strangely familiar to the “transitory” inflation narrative we heard from the Fed a couple of years ago.
Now, looking back on that prediction by Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, and their entire lot, it’s easy to see how boneheaded and stupid it was. But nobody questioned it at the time. Instead, the financial media ran wild with the “transitory” line, as did anybody whom it could benefit at the moment.
When the world offers up a free excuse for anybody to use—whether it be a crisis, some bullshit from the Federal Reserve, or something as simple as bad weather—everybody in the entire industry is happy to use that as cover for not keeping an eye on their blind spots.
Taking a skeptical or bearish outlook on markets means that you’re swimming upstream 90% of the time because you have the entire industry—and all of the complex-sounding academic jargon it has birthed over the last 30 to 40 years in an effort to distract you, magician style, from very simple economic laws—pushing against you. But that doesn’t mean it’s always going to be an...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE HERE).
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. Assume any and all numbers in this piece are wrong and make sure you check them yourself. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
