Silver's forecast model gives Trump a 65.7 percent chance to reach 270 electoral votes
Trump leads Biden on immigration, economy, Second Amendment: Fox News poll
Fox News senior White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich takes a look inside Fox News' latest survey on the presidential race and key issues on 'Special Report.'
Polling and data guru Nate Silver revealed former President Trump was solidly favored to win the White House in his first presidential election forecast on Wednesday.
"The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden)," Silver, who formerly ran polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, wrote in his "Silver Bulletin" substack.
Silver's forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.
"If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied," Silver wrote.
President Biden, left, and former President Donald Trump, right. (Getty Images)
TRUMP AHEAD OF BIDEN IN THESE CRUCIAL PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND STATES
Silver noted that his model adjusts "for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of [Robert F. Kennedy] Jr., and house effects," and added that his polling averages "weight more reliable polls more heavily."
The data expert wrote that there was still time for Biden to turn things around and suggested the president give the nomination to Vice President Harris or someone else at the Democratic convention. However, he wrote, "Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea."
"And he’s really not that far behind," Silver wrote of Biden. "But the race isn’t a toss-up. That's at best a white lie — a convenient fiction that allows everyone to shirk accountability for their forecasts and their decisions."
Statistician, Author and Founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver speaks onstage at the ABC Leadership Breakfast panel during Advertising Week 2015 AWXII at the Bryant Park Grill on September 28, 2015 in New York City. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for AWXII)
Silver was acclaimed in 2012 for correctly picking the winner of every state between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and confidentlyforecasting an Obama victory. He was bullish on Hillary Clinton in 2016 but cautioned Trump had a reasonable chance.
In 2020, FiveThirtyEight's model gave Biden nearly a 90-percent chance of winning the presidency on the eve of the election.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE COVERAGE OF MEDIA AND CULTURE
Silver said earlier this month that the Democratic Party would have been "better served" if Biden decided not to seek a second term.
"Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask," Silver posted on June 10.
Silver argued the president needed to consider stepping aside if he's still struggling in the polls in August.
"It's not a great situation for Ds either way, but you have to do due diligence on the question. It's an important election, obviously. It shouldn't be taboo to talk about," he wrote on social media in May.
Hanna Panreck is an associate editor at Fox News.
