Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
James Lavish, CFA, is a seasoned professional in institutional investing and risk management with over two decades of experience. He is currently the Managing Partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, which focuses on public and private investments in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Lavish is recognized for his work in educating others about financial fundamentals through his newsletter, The Informationist, which simplifies complex financial concepts for a broad audience.
On my talk with him last week, I asked him to lay out, in simple terms, exactly just how screwed the U.S. economy is.
James opened by talking about the fact that the numbers and what consumers are feeling are like having two different economies: "You’re seeing two economies out there. And that's causing a lot of confusion out there. You hear the Fed talking about inflation. You hear the White House saying they've got inflation tackled. You hear businesses saying that they're struggling. You hear consumers saying that they're struggling. They can't stand the inflation, the prices. They can't keep up. But yet you see these numbers that are coming out that seem to be okay. They're conflicting.”
He added: “You're getting unemployment numbers that are conflicting with the actual job numbers. You're getting pricing that is conflicting. If you go to the grocery store, you're looking at the prices, you're saying there's no way this is up 3.2 percent from last year. This is up 10, 12, 15 percent. So there's confusion out there."
He then went on to try and explain why this is: "The confusion, Chris, is that you've got pockets of recession, which are natural when you have the Fed raise rates so quickly and hold them there for so long. And look, 5.5% is not an incredibly high rate on interest rates on the Fed funds rate historically. But when you raise rates from just over 0%, where they were holding for a decade, to 5%, it's massive because we've become incredibly indebted in this nation, which we're going to touch on quite a bit here. But the most important thing to understand is why people are asking, 'If the Fed has raised rates so steeply, why is the inflation rate not come down? Why is it not back to the two percent or under two percent target?'"
“And the answer is that it's because the government is spending wildly, like so incredibly irresponsibly, that it's causing what we're calling...(LISTEN TO THIS FULL INTERVIEW HERE).
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