A fresh report Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal has reviewed a US intelligence assessment which concludes Israel currently sees an opening for strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, sensing Tehran's weakness after Hezbollah's leadership was decimated, Assad fell in Syria, and following tit-for-tat major strikes between Israel and the Islamic Republic last year.
The key line in the report is that "The intelligence analysis concluded Israel would push the Trump administration to back the strikes, viewing him as more likely to join an attack than now-former President Joe Biden and fearing the window for halting Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon was closing, two of the people familiar with the intelligence said."
The assessment, produced by multiple intelligence agencies, was issued within weeks of Trump taking office, but a similar follow-up conclusion was forwarded to President Trump upon his entering the Oval Office.
"The U.S. intelligence community produced a second report delivered during the early days of President Trump’s administration reiterating that Israel is considering such strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to one of the U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence," the WSJ continues.
But it also says that Israel would likely have to rely on Pentagon help. The WSJ cites US military officials who conclude that American "military support and munitions would likely be needed for an Israeli attack on Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear sites given their complexity."
While Trump has taken a hard pro-Israel line on the Gaza crisis, just this week telling Hamas it must release all remaining Israeli captives by noon Saturday or else there will be "hell" to pay, he has also long vowed to end 'wars of choice' and needless foreign military adventurism abroad.
A major joint US-Israel attack on Iran's nuclear facilities certainly fits the definition of a 'war of choice' from the American public's perspective, given war weariness has also long set in regarding the Ukraine war, and Washington's costly role in it. But during his first term he showed a willingness to shoot from the hip, ordering the risky drone strike which took out IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani at the Baghdad airport in January 2020 (risky, that is, in terms of blowback and the potential of starting a regional war).
But certainly the new WSJ reporting signals that Israeli officials are trying to drag the Trump administration into a heightened conflict with Iran.
"Iran is more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities," Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced in November. "We have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal—to thwart and eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel."
Trump on Monday warned no option is off the table to prevent the Iranians from achieving nuclear weapons status. But he also seems to be in the mood for a more peaceful negotiated solution.
Trump told Fox that thwarting Iran's development of nuclear weapons could be achieved either "with bombs or with a written piece of paper." The warning came the week following his restoring 'maximum pressure' and new oil-targeted sanctions with an executive order.
Crucially, he concluded, "I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them."
There are plenty of Iran hawks in the Trump administration, but the question will be whether the non-interventionist leaning officials win out - such as newly confirmed Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. After all US, intelligence, including the CIA, still has not assessed that Iran is bent on building a bomb. Time will tell.
