What's At Stake In Biden's Border War With Texas

What's At Stake In Biden's War For Open Borders

With fentanyl and other often fatal drugs pouring across the border, one might wonder why the Biden Administration insists on keeping America's southern border open to illegal migration, despite the opposition of the governors of 26 states. The answer is simple: more illegal aliens means more future Democratic voters, and, eventually, a permanent Democratic majority at all levels of government. 

Tucker Carlson made this point in the video in X post below, in which he claimed there were currently 22 million illegals in the U.S. 

But Arizona Congressman Andy Biggs argues there are now 40 million illegals here.

What's clear is that there are several million more illegals here since President Biden took office, and he would like to increase those numbers further. 

When Democrats Deny The Impact Of Demographic Change

Occasionally Democratic pundits will play dumb about the political impact of their demographic change via immigration, suggesting that no one knows which way immigrants and their descendants will vote in the future. In truth, though, there is plenty of empirical data about how people from different parts of the world vote: people from Northern Europe lean right, and everyone else is further to the left. Noah Carl wrote a piece drilling down on the data at Aporia Magazine, which he was kind enough to let us excerpt below [emphasis ours]. 

Who are the most right-wing Americans?

A look at ethnic origins.

It’s well known that there are sizeable race differences in political attitudes and voting patterns in the US.

Most white people support the Republicans, while most non-white people support the Democrats. In the 2020 election, 57% of whites voted for Trump – compared to 32% of Hispanics, 31% of Asians and just 12% of blacks. If only whites had voted, Trump would have won the vast majority of states; if only-non whites had voted, he would not have won any.

But what about differences between more fine-grained groups, such as English Americans versus Irish Americans?

We can examine these using data from the General Social Survey, which includes a question on the respondent’s ethnic origin. Specifically, he or she is asked, “From what countries or part of the world did your ancestors come?” Since the GSS has a very large sample size when the various waves are combined, it is feasible to examine differences between many ethnic origin groups. (These data were analysed previously by Sean Last.)

Differences in political views are shown below. All groups for which the unweighted number of observations was at least 100 were included, as were all survey waves between 1972 and 2022. Sample weights were applied (though doing so made little difference). Groups are ordered by percentage conservative.

There is a relatively clear pattern: Americans of Northern European origin are the most conservative; those of Southern and Eastern European origin are intermediate; and those of Asian, African or Mexican origin are the least conservative.

Among Europeans, Swiss, Dutch and British are the most conservative, while Lithuanians, Russians and Romanians are the least. Among Asians, Chinese are the most conservative and Indians are the least. Interestingly, Arabs are the second-least conservative – which is somewhat unexpected, though less so when you consider that they’re highly selected.

The pattern for European-origin groups is consistent with contemporary variation in economic freedom across countries. Generally speaking, economic freedom is higher in Northern Europe and somewhat lower in Southern and Eastern Europe. There are exceptions, however. The Baltics tend to score quite high on economic freedom (though they could be considered part of Northern Europe).

Results for party ID are very similar, as shown below. Americans of Northern European origin are the most likely to be Republican; those of Southern and Eastern European origin are intermediate, while those of Asian, African or Mexican origin are the least likely to be Republican. This is hardly surprising, as conservative political views are one of the best predictors of voting Republican.

Read the rest here.

In Case You Missed It

In our previous post, we wrote about how we missed a winning earnings trade in IBM this week, one that could have led to a >100% return. In a nutshell, our own composite score was bullish on it, but were skeptical about the data. We won't be next time. 

If you want a heads up when we place our next trade, make sure your subscribed to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

If You Want To Stay In Touch

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on Twitter here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).