The key is Crimea... and we will see Ukraine supported by its Western backers concentrate its riskier and more brazen attack operations there, as has already been happening this summer.
Just this very week there's been a steady uptick in these major Ukrainian operations targeting the peninsula and Moscow's Sevastopol naval headquarters, including drone and missile strikes, as well as sea drone attacks against docked warships, and there was even a bizarre effort at an amphibious landing by Ukraine special forces in late August.
Russia's military said that overnight its defenses intercepted nearly a dozen inbound drones over Crimea. And later in the day Thursday, Ukraine's military claimed that it took out at least one of Russia's advanced missile systems on the peninsula. Kiev has over the last weeks been doing something it usually never did previously in the war — directly claiming responsibility for such brazen attacks on Crimea and cross-border operations against Russia proper. Toward what end?