We replaced families with Uncle Sam. DOGE must make the right choices when cutting

If we want a smaller government, we need stronger families. 

President Donald Trump’s efforts to shrink the size and scope of government through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has the potential to change the trajectory of the nation. But Trump can’t deliver this promise only by cutting wasteful spending. American taxpayers have been forced to fund DEI programs in Europe, drag shows in Ecuador, and electric vehicle experiments in Asia — turning off this tap won’t be enough.   

Soon, the path to restoring fiscal health in America is going to lead the administration down much more politically treacherous paths – ones that may include trimming government programs that millions of Americans use.  

If this causes us to panic, we ought to ask the obvious question: why are so many millions of Americans reliant on programs like housing assistance, food stamps and government-funded healthcare? In fact, a big part of the answer is that the decline of marriage and the collapse of families has fueled much of our nation’s large-scale dependence on government to meet too many of our basic needs. 

Our nation has outsourced the key functions of family to the state and that isn't working. (iStock)

In order for DOGE to navigate these waters and accomplish its massive ambition, it will have to think along deeper lines than trimming staff and wasteful programs from the federal government. It will have to relinquish government power back to smaller units: families, communities and states.   

The Center for Christian Virtue and the Institute for Family Studies recently collaborated on a new study called "The Hope and a Future Report." This report takes a deep dive into how decreasing marriage rates, especially among the low-income Ohioans, are driving poverty, academic failure and violence in our communities – all of which drive the growth of government.  

Consider child poverty: In Youngstown Ohio, 68% of children are living in homes without a married father. Fifty percent of Youngstown children are in poverty.  

From there, the data tracks on nearly a straight line down: in Vice President JD Vance’s hometown of Middletown, Ohio, 51% of children are living in unmarried homes, with 26% of kids in poverty. 

Then you have New Albany, Ohio, where 91% of children are being raised in a married home, and a mere 4% child poverty rate. More broadly, what we see is that children in single-mother families are four times more likely to be poor in Ohio than children in married families. 

For DOGE, and any leader interested in scaling back the size of government at the federal or state level, child poverty is their scourge. Children in poverty are far more likely to rely on government services not just today, but long into the future.  

Again, look to Ohio for a case study. In Republican Gov. Mike DeWine’s projected 2025 budget, the state Office of Budget and Management says Ohio is expecting to receive $25.5 billion dollars from the federal government – the majority of this for Medicaid, a program specifically for low-income children, families and adults. 

In fact, family breakdown is deeply tied to the three biggest items in state spending. Typical state budgets do three things: education, health and human services and law and order. They educate, they medicate and they incarcerate. 

One of the big thing governments spend money on is incarceration. FILE: Kern Valley State Prison in California (Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

A staggering 88.4% of Ohio’s budget is spent on these three areas and all three are more expensive for taxpayers when kids aren’t born into the ideal and most stable environment. That’s because school failure, child poverty and antisocial behavior are significantly more common for children and families in non-intact families.  

Children from non-intact families in Ohio are 72% more likely to have their parents contacted by a teacher or principal at their school for behavioral or learning problems, compared to children from intact, married families, according to an IFS-CCV analysis of the National Survey of Children’s Health.

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Included in the Hope and a Future Report is a first-ever Family Structure Index which ranks all 50 states according to the health of their family culture. The Index analyzes demographic and fertility data to investigate which states are home to the strongest, most stable and most sustainable families. 

Unsurprisingly, we see a connection between healthy and stable families and the economic well-being of a state. Seven of the top 10 states in the Family Structure Index are also in the top 10 in the American Legislative Exchange Commissions Laffer State Economic Outlook Rankings of 2024, which analyzes the states with the lowest tax and regulatory policies. In other words, one reason states like Utah, Idaho and South Dakota are doing so well economically and fiscally is that they also have some of the strongest families in the nation. 

For DOGE, and any leader interested in scaling back the size of government at the federal or state level, child poverty is their scourge. Children in poverty are far more likely to rely on government services not just today, but long into the future.  

Elon Musk, who is currently overseeing Trump’s DOGE, has been a great advocate for half of the family solution here: that we should celebrate children. But, judging by his own approach to family formation, he doesn’t seem to appreciate how much marriage matters for our kids and our country.  

In order to protect these children from poverty and to keep them from ultimately becoming dependent on the government, we first need to encourage marriage. This not only best serves the kids, but over the coming years will make federal and state government far more efficient than even Musk’s wildest dreams.  

Brad Wilcox is Distinguished University Professor at the University of Virginia, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and the author of "Get Married: Why Americans Must Defy the Elites, Forge Strong Families, and Save Civilization." 

Aaron Baer is the president of the Center for Christian Virtue. 

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Brad Wilcox (@BradWilcoxIFS), a sociology professor and director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of "Get Married: Why Americans Must Defy the Elites, Forge Strong Families, and Save."