2024: The Year Trumpism Triumphed and Put Globalists on the Run in Europe

As Brexit foreshadowed Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, the defeat of Kamala Harris and the Democrats this year was preceded by the fall of globalists in Europe, as Trumpism and the populist message began to erode power structures across the Atlantic.

Upon entering office in 2016, Trump was not only faced with opposition at home, in the form of Democrats, the ‘Russiagate’ conspiracy-purveying deep state, and neo-cons and other opponents in his own party, but also by leaders in Europe with firm power bases that enabled them to push back against the aims of the first Trump administration.

Now, eight years later, as Trump prepares to take back the reigns of power in Washington and the domestic opposition in disarray, those who would seek to thwart his vision for the world in capitals like Berlin, Brussels, London, or Paris have largely either fallen by the wayside or have been brought low by fleeting legitimacy in their homelands and abroad.

Meanwhile, Trumpism appears to be catching on in Europe, with key figures in the international populist movement making major gains this year and in some cases entering into government in countries where it would have been unthinkable even just a few years ago.

Although the world has broken out into chaos in Trump’s absence, with wars erupting in both Europe and the Middle East, in many respects the global chessboard appears much more favourable to the MAGA position. Here’s a look at some of the key areas of the board and the pieces left standing: 

The Sun Setting on Jupiter

The only major European power player during Trump’s first term in office to still be in office is French President Emmanuel Macron, which perhaps played a part in Trump’s decision to make Paris the destination of his first international visit after his election victory.

Initially hailed as a “bromance” before later being downgraded by the press to “frenemies”, the relationship between the two leaders has always, in reality, been rocky at best, given their fundamentally opposed world views. Macron prefers a globalist perspective, in which he, as a ‘Jupitarean’ figure, rises above mere France as a leader of Europe willing to sacrifice national interest for the greater internationalist project, while Trump places an emphasis on putting his own country above all others.

The relationship between the two men has been best symbolised by their now years-long battle during handshakes. Gritted teeth masquerading as smiles, the pair have squared off numerous times during photo-ops, with some handshakes lasting minutes as they jockeyed for position.

In their back and forth handshake battles, Trump mostly came out on top over the comparatively diminutive Macron. This result has often been mirrored in other disputes between the two leaders, with Trump often delighting in relaying how he forced Macron into accepting better trade terms after threatening to slap large tariffs on French wine imports to the United States.

Today, Macron is in a somewhat contradictory position of being both one of the most seasoned politicians in Europe and simultaneously in his weakest position since coming to power in 2017. Domestic politics in France has descended into a potentially perilous stalemate after his disastrous decision to call for snap legislative elections in June after suffering an embarrassing defeat to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the preceding EU elections.

During the second round of the legislative elections, often used to keep outsider parties from taking power Macron, fearful of another victory for Le Pen, partnered with the leftist New Popular Front coalition. Though the right was thwarted, it left the National Assembly in an apparently ungovernable three-way split.

This came at a particularly inopportune moment, given France’s growing debt crisis, which risks the country downgraded by credit agencies and even financially sanctioned by the EU. This position of economic weakness bodes poorly for Paris if it attempts to engage in a trade war with Trump, whose economy is on much firmer footing.

Macron is now on his fourth government of the year, after short-term Michel Barnier became the first prime minister to be ousted by the National Assembly since 1962 after he tried to force through tax hikes and cuts to social security, which critics on the left and right blasted as displacing the failures of the Macron administration onto the public. With Macron prohibited from calling for new parliamentary elections until June, it is possible that he may be forced to resign if another one of his governments fails to pass a budget and collapses.

The disarray at home likely indicates that Macron will seek to gain wins on the international stage. No wonder Macron insisted upon bringing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to his talks with Trump on the sidelines of the reopening of the Cathedral of Notre Dame in November.

The French president has positioned himself — after earlier failed attempts at playing peacemaker — as one of the most hardline supporters of Kyiv in Western Europe. Yet, Macron may seek to latch onto Trump’s peace efforts to gain himself a much needed political victory.

Macron is also reportedly seeking to create a coalition of European military forces to deploy to Ukraine to enforce any peace deal, which may lay the groundwork for the formation of an outright EU Army, a long-held aspiration of the arch-globalist.

The Fall of Berlin

Much like France, the domestic political situation in Germany is in complete turmoil. On the back of yet another terror attack committed by a Middle Eastern migrant, Germans will head to the polls in less than two months’ time, and current Chancellor Olaf Scholz is likely to be removed.

The next inhabitant of the Chancellery in Berlin will be taking over a country with a declining economy and deep social divides, particularly over the issue of mass migration. Whilst the election has yet to be decided, it is clear that there are no Angela Merkels waiting in the wings to take the reins and reinstate Berlin as the principal power in Europe.

Although international observers have belatedly begun to question Merkel’s record, with her green energy policies and reliance on Russian gas to fill the gaps leaving the country vulnerable to international events and her migrant policy having disastrous consequences for German society, Merkel was unquestionably one of the most powerful leaders in Europe and represented one of the chief opponents to Trump during his first term.

While the handshake battle came to define Trump’s relationship with Macron, a handshake that wasn’t came to symbolise his relationship with Merkel.

In a moment that became one of the top anecdotes recounted in Merkel’s recently published memoirs, then-President Trump steadfastly refused to shake the hand of the German leader during a 2017 meeting in the Oval Office as members of the press practically begged him to do so.

The pair would ultimately later shake hands, but the initial snub was clear. Merkel, in essence, represented the antithesis of Trumpian political philosophy, prioritising open borders over native Germans, elevating the green agenda over domestic industry, relying on American military might to protect her nation from the threat of Russia as it consistently failed to meet NATO defence spending requirements, all the while sending billions to Moscow in exchange for energy.

In a 2018 address before the United Nations, then-President Trump warned: “Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course. Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers.”

The German delegation was filmed openly laughing at the warnings from the American leader; however, following the Ukraine war, Moscow cut off gas shipments to Germany, and the Nord Stream pipelines connecting the two countries were destroyed, leaving German industry, once the envy of Europe, in tatters and proving Trump the prophet. 

Amid economic decline and the fractured political environment in Berlin, with the leftist coalition government of Olaf Scholz collapsing last month and February elections likely to result in another unstable coalition government, Germany may be ripe for the picking in Trump’s trade war.

Trump has long objected to Germany’s high tariffs on American automobiles and will likely seek to pounce upon the downturn facing giants like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen to pressure Berlin to open up its market to U.S. cars and potentially force German manufacturers to open up production sites in America.

The King is Dead, Long Live the King

For the first time in over seven decades, the United Kingdom saw the accession of a new Monarch following the 2022 death of Queen Elizabeth II, who was succeeded by her son, now King Charles III.

During Trump’s absence from the White House, Britain also saw the fall of the so-called Conservative Party, which suffered a historic defeat to the left-wing Labour Party on the July 4th elections this year.

However, while one would typically expect a significant change as a result of the landslide victory for Labour, in reality, both Labour and the Tories have been moulded into Blairite social democrat globalist parties; two sides of the same Westminster establishment coin. Therefore, the change in occupancy in Number 10 Downing Street may be described as: “The globalists are dead, long live the globalists”.

Yet, while there is little difference between the two parties on policy, the past virtue-signalling anti-Trump comments from top Labour Party politicians may come back to bite them.

With the Conservative governments of Prime Ministers Theresa May and Boris Johnson both failing to ink a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States, while Trump was in office the first go-around — after which the prospect was shelved by the anti-British Biden administration — it will now fall to the government of Sir Keir Starmer to not only avoid Trump’s tariffs but also to hopefully craft a mutually beneficial trade deal.

Negotiations may have been soured before they began, however, with top cabinet members such as Foreign Secretary David Lammy previously branding Trump a “neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath”, a “racist KKK and Nazi sympathiser,” and a “tyrant in a toupee”. The nominated next ambassador to Washington, Lord Peter ‘Prince of Darkness’ Mandelson has also been derogatory towards Trump, describing him in 2019 as a “little short of a white nationalist and racist.”

Ties were further damaged by the Labour Party dispatching activists to campaign on behalf of Trump’s Democrat rival Kamala Harris over the summer, which the Trump team claimed violated election law.

Lammy has so far refused to apologise, but he has been sent on grovelling charm offensives in Washington to try to ingratiate himself with Republicans and members of Trump’s cohort. Expect such grovelling from London to continue, with the country being ill-prepared financially to sustain any trade war with the United States.

Given Trump’s love of the Royal Family, the Starmer government may be well advised to lean on the persuasive force of the Crown to help soothe relations. This may have already begun, with Prince William holding a private meeting with President-Elect Trump on the sidelines of the reopening of Notre Dame in Paris earlier this month. Undoubtedly to the chagrin of hard-leftists like London Mayor Sadiq Khan, rolling out the red carpet at Buckingham Palace for a state visit is likely also on the cards.

A Throne in Brussels

One of the few figures with the political clout necessary to actually stand up to Trump in any meaningful way may be European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who just secured her second five-year term at the helm of the bloc. However, with populist and conservative parties gaining strength in the European Parliament, the relative weakness of her allies in Germany and France, as well as rumblings of resentment against her own power grabs in Brussels, picking a fight with Trump may not be such a good idea for von der Leyen.

The EU princessling and acolyte of Angela Merkel, under whom she served as an infamously bad German defence minister, presented a carrot rather than a stick in her opening salvo with Trump, promptly suggesting after his victory that the EU would look to increase purchases of liquid natural gas (LNG) from the United States to lessen its dependency on Russia. This appears to be a rerun of the strategy of her predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, who avoided a full-on trade war with the Trump administration by vowing to buy more soybeans and LNG from America.

The EU already purchases around 48 percent of its LNG imports from the United States, compared to 16 percent from Russia. While von der Leyen’sCommission has little power to force European companies to buy more LNG from the U.S., it could theoretically impose new sanctions on Russian energy to incentivise more purchases from America. Even still, this would likely do little to dent the massive $131 billion trade imbalance between the EU and the U.S.

Trump is therefore likely to seek more concessions from the bloc, particularly in the aforementioned auto market and for U.S. agriculture. While von der Leyen and the Europeans in general will likely pushback against lowering their tariffs on American goods, their protectionist attitude could be directed in a more positive direction for the Trump administration; east towards Beijing.

Despite the havoc wrought upon the world as a result of the malfeasance of the Chinese Communist Party during the Wuhan virus crisis, Europe has been hesitant to reduce its reliance on trade with the despotic regime. However, von der Leyen has been one of the louder voices in the EU advocating for a — as she put it — “de-risking” strategy towards China and to restore industrial production to Europe. Thus, she may seek to convince Trump to hold off on imposing tariffs on the EU in exchange for helping him put pressure on the Chinese.

If she fails to persuade or come to an agreement with Trump and stave off a trade war, the knives may soon be out in Brussels for the Commission chief. Given her long track record of failure, from leaving the German military in shambles after her tenure as defence minister, to overseeing the first major war launched in Europe since the Second World War, it is unclear if she has the mental firepower to deal with Trump, or if another case of “aristocratic ineptitude” will result in another blunder for Europe under her watch.

MEGA!

One of the most significant changes in Europe during Trump’s absence happened last year, with the “mega victory” won by populist firebrand Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Dutch elections. After months of wrangling, Wilders was able to form a coalition government in which he firmly entrenched himself as the driving force, despite not actually becoming prime minister.

While The Netherlands was led by arch-globalist Mark Rutte during Trump’s first term in office, Amsterdam can now be fully counted on as an ally of Trump’s in Europe. Writing for Breitbart London this month, Wilders said that Trump’s victory in the United States will be a boon to populists across Europe, proclaiming that “we can all think big again!”

Since taking power, Wilders has methodically negotiated strict new limits on mass migration in the goal of imposing the “strictest ever” system in the West to preserve Dutch culture, reduce the strains on the housing and labour market, and counter the Islamisation of Europe.

Wilders’ victory has come amid increasing success of populist and conservative parties throughout Europe, culminating in this year’s EU Parliament elections, which saw the reformulated ‘Patriots for Europe’ group become the largest populist faction in the history of the institution and the third largest in the current parliament.

This growth was driven in large part by the surging National Rally in France. The success of the populist party at the EU level led to the collapse of the second Macron government of the year. National Rally leader Marine Le Pen — lawfare attempts to sideline her notwithstanding — is currently the frontrunner in the race to replace Macron, which may happen as early as this year. A Le Pen in the Élysée Palace would have been unthinkable in France just a decade ago; however, such is the sea change that Trump brought about, that now it seems a question of when, not if. 

In what might become the most significant development in Europe during Trump’s time out of the White House, his longest-held international ally, Brexit leader Nigel Farage, entered the British Parliament for the first time after over two decades of political campaigning.

After defying the odds and successfully leading the United Kingdom out of the European Union, Farage is once again on the march, this time with the goal of dethroning the Westminster establishment and becoming the country’s next prime minister.

Despite seeking to overthrow the governing Labour Party, Farage has offered to help mediate relations between his longtime friend and the Starmer government for the good of the country. 

Meanwhile, Trump will also have a likely ally in Rome in the form of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has shown herself as an adept operator within the EU and at cutting illegal immigration to Italy, which fell by over 60 per cent this year under her watch. Meloni has also forged close relations with key Trump ally Elon Musk.

Finally, but certainly not least, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has remained staunchly loyal to Trump and was a top advocate on the world stage for his return to the White House. Demonstrating the philosophical alignment, when Budapest took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union earlier this year, Orbán chose the slogan MEGA (Make Europe Great Again).

Orbán has consistently argued that Trump is the only leader with the strength to bring about peace in Europe and end the war in Ukraine. The Hungarian leader, whose country neighbours Ukraine and which continues to have friendly relations with Russia, may play a key role in Trump’s peace negotiations.

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Significant challenges lie ahead for the incoming president; however, the changes on the chess board since his first term in office show that the Trump movement is not merely an American phenomenon, that self-belief and self-determination are winning messages on both sides of the Atlantic, and that Trump’s victory not only represented a defeat of the Democrats, it has the globalists on the run in Europe.

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