Ann Selzer has denied claims she rigged her wildly off Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points prior to him beating her by a whopping 13 points.
Speaking during a discussion at the Iowa Press alongside moderator Kay Henderson, The Gazette’s Des Moines Bureau chief Erin Murphy, and Iowa Public Radio’s Katarina Sosta, Selzer said she still has not determined exactly how she called it so wrong.
“I’m not here to break any news. If you were hoping that I had landed on exactly why things went wrong, I have not. It does sort of awaken me in the middle of the night and I think, well maybe I should check this, this is something that would be very odd if it were to happen,” she said. “But we’ve explored everything. The Des Moines Register in an unprecedented move for transparency has put online our cross tabs, our waiting system and my analysis and that I’ve not needed to update because it was pretty complete. We don’t know. Do I wish I knew? Yes, I wish I knew.”
Selzer said she took her position as a pollster very seriously and did not intentionally rig the poll on behalf of any campaign, which she said would be a criminal act of election interference.
“Let’s deal with the allegations because I am mystified about what the motivation anybody thinks I had and would act on in such a public poll. I don’t understand it. And the allegations I take very seriously. They’re saying that this was election interference, which is a crime. So, the idea that I intentionally set up to deliver this response, when I’ve never done that before, I’ve had plenty of opportunities to do it, it’s not my ethic,” Selzer said.
Epic Selzer poll fail! https://t.co/zLKCKUkeze
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) November 6, 2024
“But to suggest without a single shred of evidence that I was in cahoots with somebody, I was being paid by somebody, it’s all just kind of, it’s hard to pay too much attention to it except that they are accusing me of a crime,” she added.
Leading up to Election Day, the Des Moines Register poll conducted by Ann Selzer caused an earthquake throughout the political world when it showed Trump trailing Kamala Harris by three points even though he won the state handily in both 2016 and 2020. Given Selzer’s reputation for being the “gold standard” of political polling, pundits and various commentators saw it as a potentially ominous sign for Trump’s election prospects and adjusted their models and predictions as a result, despite the poll being radically out of line with others that showed Trump leading Harris by as much as eight points in Iowa.
Come Election Day, Trump not only won the state but also crushed Harris by 13 points, destroying Selzer’s longstanding reputation.
In an op-ed for the Des Moines Register released weeks after the election, Selzer announced her exit from polling, something she had been planning to do for over a year.
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” she wrote.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work,” she added.
Selzer said she thought her “findings looked good” after over 30 years of polling, noting that she had earned an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy
“My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships,” she concluded.
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