Various betting agencies now have Vice President Kamala Harris as favorite to become the Democratic candidate for the 2024 election, pushing her to the fore ahead of incumbent President Joe Biden.
The shift in sentiment comes after the octogenarian’s humiliating performance in the recent presidential debate against former President Donald Trump, as Breitbart News reported.
U.K.-based betting company William Hill is offering odds of 11/2 (15.4 percent) on Harris being the Democrat nominee later this year, against 6/1 (14.3 percent) for Biden, Newsweek reports.
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps told Newsweek:
A huge shift in the U.S. Presidential election market this morning has seen Kamala Harris leap ahead of Joe Biden as the most likely Democrat candidate.
Although Donald Trump remains favorite (to be the next president) at 4/7 (63.6 percent), Harris’ odds have come in from 9/1 to 11/2, with current President Joe Biden drifting to 6/1.
Biden’s woeful performance in last week’s televised debate has raised further doubts over his chances of keeping his place in the Oval Office, with Vice President Harris now leading Biden in the approval ratings and edging ahead of her Democrat colleague in the race.
Likewise Forbes reports a seismic move in bookmaker preferences.
It sets out the prediction market platform Polymarket said Biden’s chance of becoming the Democratic nominee for November’s election tanked from a fairly assured 90 percent on Thursday morning to 49 percent as of early Wednesday.
After some fluctuations over the weekend, a steep decline from 78 percent to 49 percent occurred on Tuesday itself, as the former president faced headwinds from within the Democratic party.
As Biden’s chances have fallen, the betting market is shifting its money to Harris, whose odds have risen from one percent before the debate to 35 percent early Wednesday, according to Polymarket.
Others are claiming to be tracking similar shifts.
Kamala > Biden in the betting markets, first time ever pic.twitter.com/SPPjQaKEAc
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) July 3, 2024
Reuters reports Harris is the top alternative to replace Biden if he decides not to continue his reelection campaign, according to seven senior sources at the Biden campaign, the White House and the Democratic National Committee with knowledge of current discussions on the topic.
If named as the party nominee, Harris, 59, would take money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure, the anonymous sources told Reuters.
She also has the highest name recognition among all the alternatives, and the highest polling among Democrats who could seriously be considered a candidate, the sources said.
