Former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in all seven swing states, according to an internal poll from his campaign.
The poll, conducted by Tony Fabrizio and John McLaughlin, finds Trump with leads ranging from one to five percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to a memo:
Arizona:
- Trump: 49 percent (+3)
- Harris: 46 percent
- Undecided: 5 percent
Georgia:
- Trump: 50 percent (+5)
- Harris: 45 percent
- Undecided: 5 percent
Michigan:
- Trump: 49 percent (+1)
- Harris: 48 percent
- Undecided: 3 percent
Nevada:
- Trump: 50 percent (+3)
- Harris: 47 percent
- Undecided: 3 percent
North Carolina:
- Trump: 48 (+1)
- Harris: 47
- Undecided: 5
Pennsylvania:
- Trump: 49 percent (+1)
- Harris: 48 percent
- Undecided: 3 percent
Wisconsin:
- Trump: 49 percent (+1)
- Harris 48 percent
- Undecided: 3 percent
In their memo, Fabrizio and McLaughlin noted that if this data were translated to the electoral map, it would equate to a landslide victory with 312 electoral votes, eight better than the 304 he scored in 2016.
“As importantly, President Trump is at or on the precipice of 50% in virtually all of these states,” they pointed out.
The pollsters say they “expect that President Trump’s edge will only continue to solidify,” citing inflation that has rocked American consumers and Harris’s comment to the View that she would not have done anything differently than President Joe Biden over the past four years.
The poll sampled a total of 800 likely voters in each state from October 6-9, and the margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points.
The internal data comes as political analyst Mark Halperin detailed during 2Way’s the Morning Meeting earlier this week that Harris has “got a problem” in private polling. He pointed specifically to polling from Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) that was shared with Walls Street Journal, which shows Harris trailing Trump by three in Wisconsin.
“The whole thing to me is about the Electoral College. You take any of the… Rust Belt states away from her it’s very difficult to win,” Halperin said. “It’s not mathematically impossible, but it probably won’t happen if she loses any of them.”
Public polls are beginning to show that Trump has broken away from Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin. Quinnipiac University surveys published on Wednesday found Trump leading by 50 percent to 47 percent in Michigan and by 48 percent to 46 percent in Wisconsin.
