Former President Donald Trump has surged five points in Michigan over the past month and now has a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris there, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll, which spells significant trouble for Harris and Democrats, finds that 50 percent of 1,007 likely Michigan voters back Trump, while 47 percent are behind Harris. Independent Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver tie at one percent.
Trump is surging in the election’s home stretch as Harris is showing signs of collapse. In September’s Quinnipiac poll, Harris had a 5-point lead on Trump, with 50 percent of support to his 45 percent.
In just a month, his five-point ascent and her three-point slide marks a net eight-point swing in Trump’s direction.
Women voters coalescing behind Trump appears to be a leading driver of this month-over-month change. In the September 12-16 survey, Harris led with Michigan women 58 percent to 39 percent, but Trump has cut her 19-point lead to single digits.
Now, She only leads Trump 53 percent to 45 percent among likely voters who are women in the Wolverine State. At the same time, Trump has widened his lead with men from 10 points to 14 points since September, while the margins among independents have virtually inverted. Trump leads with this demographic 48 percent to 46 percent, compared to Harris’s 47 percent to 44 percent edge last month.
Perhaps even more staggering is the shift in voters aged 18-34 over the last month. In September, Trump trailed Harris 38 percent to 56 percent among these younger voters, but he now owns an 8-point lead among the cohort, at 51 percent to 43 percent. This marks a staggering 26-point swing in Trump’s direction.
What is more, the latest figures from Quinnipiac also show that she is behind Trump 48 percent to 46 percent in Wisconsin, while she has a slight lead in Pennsylvania.
Journalist Mark Halperin pointed out Tuesday that Harris is unlikely to win the election if she loses any of the Rust Belt states.
“The whole thing’s about the electoral college. You take any of the Rust Belt states away from her, it’s very difficult for her to win, very difficult. It’s not mathematically impossible, but it probably won’t happen if she loses any of them,” Halperin said on 2Way’s Morning Meet.
Halperin also said Harris has “a problem now” in private polling.
“It’s not cheering, it’s not predicting Trump will win, she’s got a problem,” he added before highlighting an internal poll for Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) campaign shared with the Wall Street Journal, which reportedly showed Harris three points back of Trump.
It seems public polling is starting to reflect this private polling trend with the Quinnipiac poll. It is also worth noting the Quinnipiac surveys were conducted from October 3-7, on the heels of the October 1 vice presidential debate.
The poll is also signaling trouble for Democrats in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, where former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) is tied with Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) at 48 percent apiece. Like Trump, Rogers has seen a significant boost month over month as Slotkin loses steam. In September’s Quinnipiac poll, Slotkin led Rogers 51 percent to 46 percent.
The poll’s release comes the morning after their first debate. Their second is scheduled for October 14, next Monday.
The margin of error in both the presidential race and the U.S. Senate race is ± 3.1 percentage points.
