The latest national polling from ActiVote shows former President Donald Trump has overcome what was a 5.4 point lead for sitting Vice President Kamala Harris less than three weeks ago.
Currently, according to this poll of 1,000 likely voters, Trump leads Harris by 1.2 points, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent.
In fact, Harris had enjoyed a steady lead in this poll going back to August 7. Except for a brief moment in late September, this is the first time Trump has led. Best of all, this is not an outlier finding in this tracking poll. Over the last few weeks, Trump has slowly increased his support while Kamala’s support has slowly eroded.
Here’s a breakdown of the internals:
Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. Harris leads among younger voters (18-49) while Trump leads among older voters (50+). Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Both get around 80% of those affiliated (30 states) or estimated to be affiliated (20 states) with their party, while Harris has a narrow lead among independents. Trump leads among White voters, while Harris gets 73% of the Black vote and a majority (59%) of Latino voters. There are only small differences between income and education categories, where Harris has a small lead among low income voters, and those with a college education. Trump leads among those with the highest incomes and those with some college.
Additionally, Trump earns an impressive 27 percent of the black vote (Harris sits at 73 percent) and 41 percent of Hispanics (Harris earns 59 percent). For a Republican, those numbers should be respectively closer to ten and 25 percent.
ActiVote’s tracking poll does its surveys over five days. These results are from October 3-8 and have a 3.1 percent margin of error.
This poll tracks with the most recent trend in the national polling that shows the race narrowing to an average of about 1.3 points (in Kamala’s favor) in the last seven polls. That average does not count this ActiVote poll.
What’s most useful is being able to watch the trend within the same poll. The trend is more important than the result, and the trend is all going Trump’s way.
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