Poll: Donald Trump Leads Kamala Harris in Florida

Former President Donald Trump has a clear lead in a hypothetical presidential race against Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida, a survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab finds.

The latest statewide survey — released on Tuesday, July 30, 2024 — finds Trump leading Harris by seven percent in a hypothetical presidential race in the Sunshine State.

According to the results, 49 percent support Trump, followed by 42 percent who say the same of Harris — whom Democrat leaders have largely coronated despite not one person casting a vote for Harris as the top-of-the-ticket nominee.

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The survey shows, predictably, that most Democrats in Florida support Harris, and most Republicans support Trump. However, independents break for Trump by double digits. Trump leads Harris by 12 percentage points, garnering 50 percent support to Harris’s 38 percent support among independents, specifically.

Notably, Trump also has a three-point lead against Harris among women, seeing 47 percent support to Harris’s 44 percent support.

The survey also shows that 74 percent of black Florida voters support Harris compared to 16 percent who support Trump. However, Trump has the edge among Hispanic voters, garnering support from 57 percent compared to Harris’s 36 percent.

The survey was taken July 24-27, 2024, among 774 likely Florida voters. It has a ± 4.6 percent margin of error.

Despite standing as a traditional swing state, Democrats have not been treating Florida as such in the 2024 election cycle, given Trump’s sheer dominance in a state that has remained strongly red over the last few years, even experiencing a mini-red wave of its own in the 2022 elections. That election year saw even traditionally blue Miami-Dade tipping red for both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio.

In June, the Biden campaign was forced to scramble after campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon stated that she did not consider Florida a battleground state for President Joe Biden, who was still running at the time. However, the campaign’s battleground state director quickly tried to save face, asserting that the Sunshine State is “absolutely in play.”

The results also coincide with the reality that Republicans are nearing a one million voter registration advantage in the Sunshine State — a trend that began in November 2021.