In today's (29 September) State Council meeting, policymakers focused on the implementation of incremental easing measures and reiterated the pledge to "strive for the full-year growth targets", echoing President Xi's call in last week's September Politburo meeting.
Specifically, Goldman writes (full note available here for pro subs) that Premier Li Qiang pledged to "accelerate the pace for rolling out and implementing policy easing measures", required more forceful collaboration across different ministries and more synergy between various policy measures, and vowed to "speed up the progress of 102 key investment projects under China's 14th Five Year Plan".
As a reminder, after more than two years of slow and reluctant easing, last week's easing measures announced by the PBOC and the surprise economy-focused September Politburo meeting seemed to break away from the previous piecemeal-style of policy easing and provide a sizable dose of policy stimulus that the market has long been hoping for. At this point, much of the fiscal easing reported by the media has not been confirmed and policy implementation remains uncertain. Goldman estimates that PBOC's easing measures may boost real GDP by 40bp, while the growth implications of media-reported potential fiscal measures are difficult to pin down. Altogether, the bank still sees risks to its 4.3% real GDP growth forecast for 2025 as two-sided, although the flurry of policy news in recent days has widened the range of potential outcomes (full Goldman note available here).
