A study by Spartacus Law Firm ranked U.S. states by the number of criminals still at large, factoring in violent crime rates, solve rates, population, and land area. The final metric—criminals at large per square mile adjusted for population—put California at the top due to its high rate of unsolved violent crimes.
California leads U.S. states in criminals still at large, with 303 per square mile when adjusted for population. The state reported 198,000 violent incidents—60% unsolved—leaving nearly 119,000 offenders unaccounted for.
Tennessee ranks second with 211 per square mile, driven by the highest violent crime rate nationally (628 per 100K people) and a low 39% solve rate, according to Spartacus Law Firm.
Massachusetts takes third at 144 per square mile. Despite a 50% clearance rate and fewer incidents, its small size boosts offender density.
Maryland places fourth with 119, mirroring Tennessee’s 39% solve rate but with fewer incidents and a higher population density.
Florida is fifth at 97 per square mile, hampered by the lowest clearance rate (30%) among the top ten, resulting in nearly 46,000 unsolved cases.
New York comes sixth with 76. Though it boasts the highest solve rate (58%) of the group, its large population drives high total incidents.
The report says that Rhode Island is seventh at 53, with the lowest crime rate and total incidents, but a modest solve rate of 47%.
New Jersey ranks eighth with 31, a slightly better solve rate than Rhode Island’s, but a much higher volume of unsolved crimes.
Michigan places ninth at 26, with a high crime rate and low solve rate, totaling over 25,000 unsolved cases.
Illinois rounds out the list at tenth with 24 per square mile, similar to Michigan in solve rate and crime volume, with around 19,500 cases unresolved.
"The concentration of violent criminals at large in urban centers reveals a complex interplay between criminal justice resources, population density, and geographic constraints. This geographic lens shifts the conversation from comparing solve rates to considering how unresolved crimes create "hot zones" of impunity," Chandon Alexander, CEO of Spartacus Law Firm, commented on the study.
He continued: "Law enforcement agencies might benefit from targeted resource allocation based on these density metrics rather than raw crime statistics. The stark differences between states with similar solve rates but vastly different criminal concentrations suggests that traditional policing approaches may need regional customization, particularly in states where criminals benefit from proximity to jurisdictional boundaries or transportation networks that facilitate mobility after committing violent acts.”
The full study data can be found here.
