- US stocks ultimately closed mixed with markets choppy amid geopolitical headlines on a data-light day and as participants awaited Nvidia earnings after-hours, while there was a late rally into the closing bell which helped the major indices finish off their worst levels. Futures then saw mild two-way price action after-hours amid fluctuations in Nvidia post-earnings despite the AI darling beating on its top and bottom lines.
- USD saw notable gains albeit in thin macro newsflow with a light data docket this week and next, while there were several Fed speakers including Cook who kept the options open and stated that policy is not on a pre-set path, while Bowman said she was happy with the smaller 25bps cut in November and the following statement which allowed optionality, as well as noted concern that the Fed is calibrating policy despite not reaching its inflation goal.
- Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand Credit Card Spending, Speech from BoJ Governor Ueda & Supply from Japan.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include New Zealand Credit Card Spending, Speech from BoJ Governor Ueda & Supply from Japan.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks ultimately closed mixed with markets choppy amid geopolitical headlines on a data-light day and as participants awaited Nvidia earnings after-hours, while there was a late rally into the closing bell which helped the major indices finish off their worst levels. Futures then saw mild two-way price action after-hours amid fluctuations in Nvidia post-earnings despite the AI darling beating on its top and bottom lines.
- SPX +0.00% at 5,917, NDX -0.09% at 20,667, DJIA +0.32% at 43,408, RUT +0.03% at 2,326.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Governor Bowman (voter) said the Fed should pursue a cautious approach on monetary policy and may be closer to neutral policy than policymakers currently think but noted that inflation remains a concern. Furthermore, Bowman noted concern they are recalibrating policy but have not reached the inflation goal, while she added the Fed needs to be flexible and needs to be patient and cautious about what the immigration policy approach will be.
- Fed Governor Cook said if the labour market and inflation evolve as expected, it would be appropriate to continue lowering the policy rate towards neutral, but added if inflation progress slows with the job market still solid, could see a scenario for pausing. However, she also stated that should the labour market weaken in a substantial way, it could be appropriate to ease policy more quickly. Cook also stated that the magnitude and timing of rate cuts will depend on the upcoming data, outlook and balance of risks, while she added that policy is not on a preset path.
- Fed's Barr (voter) said regarding banking conditions that "While the system as a whole is resilient, we are carefully monitoring the continued rise in delinquency rates among certain commercial real estate loans".
- Fed's Collins (2025 voter) said some additional rate cuts are needed as policy is still restrictive but she doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly and warned that overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market. Collins also stated that the final destination of rate cuts is unclear and monetary policy is well positioned for the economic outlook, while she added monetary policy is not on a preset course and Fed policy decisions will be done meeting-by-meeting.
- US President-elect Trump is reportedly looking more seriously at Hagerty for Treasury Secretary which gives him three serious options for one of the few roles where he's taking his time, according to Axios.
- US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly considering creating the first-ever White House crypto role, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
- Nvidia Corp (NVDA) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.81 (exp. 0.75), Revenue 35.08bln (exp. 33.12bln).
FX
- USD saw notable gains albeit in thin macro newsflow with a light data docket this week and next, while there were several Fed speakers including Cook who kept the options open and stated that policy is not on a pre-set path, while Bowman said she was happy with the smaller 25bps cut in November and the following statement which allowed optionality, as well as noted concern that the Fed is calibrating policy despite not reaching its inflation goal.
- EUR retreated throughout the day beneath the 1.0600 level against the firmer dollar, while there were comments from ECB officials including from Stournaras who stated the ECB may increasingly need to avoid inflation undershoot but added that rates will stay restrictive for some time.
- GBP failed to sustain an early boost from firmer-than-expected UK inflation which briefly lifted GBP/USD above the 1.2700 level before reversing course amid the dollar strength.
- JPY weakened on the day with USD/JPY sitting comfortably above the 155.00 level amid a mild upside in US yields and as the dollar reigned supreme.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes were sold across the curve amid mixed geopolitical headlines and a weak US 20yr auction.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices were choppy and settled at lows as the surging dollar ultimately weighed on the energy complex.
- US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e 0.545M vs. Exp. 0.4M (Prev. 2.089M).
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament Berri and US Envoy Hochstein reached a positive conclusion to the implementation of Resolution 1701 after two weeks of contacts, while sources close to Berri said there is agreement on 80% of issues, according to Kann.
- Israeli sources said if the two points of contention are resolved, a ceasefire can be reached in Lebanon within a week, according to Alhadath.
- Israeli press Yedioth Ahronoth noted that sensitive and final details of Lebanon's ceasefire agreement have yet to be resolved, but there is agreement on about 90% of the terms, according to Al Arabiya.
- Hezbollah's chief said they will fight and negotiate at the same time.
- US Envoy Hochstein is to meet Israeli PM Netanyahu on Thursday to discuss the Lebanon ceasefire deal.
- US vetoed the UN Security Council resolution on the Gaza ceasefire, while a senior US official had earlier stated that the US had no option but to veto the resolution if it remains as it is and the US can't support an unconditional ceasefire that does not call for the immediate release of hostages.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said Iran will respond in the appropriate way to any non-constructive action against it at the IAEA, according to Al Jazeera.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine fired UK storm shadow missiles into Russia, according to an official cited by Bloomberg.
- Russia’s Kremlin said Putin constantly states that he is ready for contacts and negotiations on Ukraine, but noted the option of freezing the conflict will not suit Russia.
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces have taken control of Illinka in Eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Brazil's Presidency signed 37 agreements with China's President Xi, covering agriculture, education and tech.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Labour government reportedly shelved plans to introduce a "pot for life" for pensions, according to Politico citing a DWP official
- BoE's Ramsden said his overall assessment is that the economy will continue to normalise, with the recent trend towards low and relatively stable inflation continuing. Ramsden said the October CPI data was only marginally above the BoE's forecast and one small miss on the inflation forecast does not change his assessment of the outlook.
- ECB's de Guindos said the current low growth scenario has to do more with structural policy and monetary policy is not almighty.
- ECB's Stournaras said ECB policy, in taming inflation, has been a success and he sees inflation converging to 2% by the start of 2025. Stournaras stated the ECB may increasingly need to avoid an inflation undershoot and rates will stay restrictive for some time, while he added that downside risks to EZ growth remain.
- ECB's Escriva said floods in Spain to impact the Spanish economy by 0.2% in Q4.
- EU party heads reportedly reached a deal on EC President von der Leyen's commission nominees, which paves the way for a new EU commission to take office by 1st December, according to Reuters citing sources.
DATA RECAP
- UK CPI MM (Oct) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.0%)
- UK CPI YY (Oct) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 1.7%)
- German Producer Prices MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.5%)
- German Producer Prices YY (Oct) -1.1% vs. Exp. -1.1% (Prev. -1.4%)
