Several election forecast models have shifted in favor of former President Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris.
FiveThirtyEight, polling expert Nate Silver, J.L. Partners, Decision Desk HQ, and the Hill released election forecast results from their models, which found that Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election were greater than Harris’s.
In a Decision Desk HQ/the Hill election forecast, the model found that Trump had a 52 percent chance of winning the election, while Harris held a 42 percent chance of winning the election.
The Hill reported that “since late August,” Harris had between a 54 percent and 56 percent chance of winning the election, adding that “in early October,” things began to shift as Trump and Harris were predicted to have “chances” that were “closer to 50 percent”:
Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning between approximately 54 percent and 56 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.
Trump ended up taking the lead as of October 20, days after Trump and Harris were predicted to have had equal chances at winning the presidential election.
An election forecast from J.L. Partners found that there was a 65.9 percent chance of Trump winning the upcoming presidential election, while Harris had a 34 percent chance of winning.
The election forecast from J.L. Partners also found that in the swing state of Pennsylvania, Trump had a 67.7 percent chance of winning, while in the swing state of North Carolina, Trump had a 76.9 percent chance of winning.
In the swing state of Georgia, Trump was found to have a 75 percent chance of winning, while Trump’s chances in Arizona were listed as being 62.3 percent.
In a Substack post, Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight, wrote that current data “continues to be pretty negative” for Harris, adding that “three recent high-quality national polls” have Trump leading currently, according to Fox News.
Silver’s election model found that Harris was leading nationally with 48.8 percent, while Trump received 47.2 percent.
In a post on X, Silver wrote that Trump’s leads in several “national polls” were “not a great sign” for Kamala Harris in the election.
FiveThirtyEight found that Trump “wins 52 times out of 100,” while Harris “wins 48 times out of 100.”
RealClearPolitics’ betting odds average for the presidential election found that Trump received a 59.0, while Harris received a 39.8.
