Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in two crucial swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election, a new left-leaning poll found.
Future Majority/Change Research, which tends to overestimate Democrat candidates, surveyed 2,532 voters in Nevada and Pennsylvania, as well as some competitive New York congressional districts from December 3-7. The pollster found that Trump is six points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania, 46 percent to 40 percent, and four points ahead of him in Nevada, 44 percent to 40 percent.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @future_majority (D)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 8, 2024
PENNSYLVANIA
(R) Trump: 46% (+6)
(D) Biden: 40%
—
NEVADA
(R) Trump: 44% (+4)
(D) Biden: 40%
—@ChangePolls | RVs | Dec. 3-7 https://t.co/iJQ0knL5GD pic.twitter.com/bJ1eOHs6LG
The new report includes the pollster’s previous insights, showing that the 2022 Pennsylvania electorate had 0.6 points fewer Biden voters than in 2020. The 2022 Nevada electorate had 2.3 points fewer Biden voters than in 2020.
The results are significant, given that Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 and lost in 2020, as well as lost Nevada in both 2016 and 2020. Pennsylvania voters favored Democrats in the 2022 Senate and gubernatorial races, and in Nevada, Democrats held a three-point advantage in 2020 and narrowly reelected Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in 2022. However, Nevadans ousted incumbent Democrat Gov. Steve Sisolak in favor of Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Bloomberg/Morning Consult
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 14, 2023
WISCONSIN
Trump 45% (+4)
Biden 41%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 49% (+6)
Biden 43%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 46% (+4)
Biden 42%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 46% (+2)
Biden 44%
.
NEVADA
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 49% (+9)
Biden 40%
.
ARIZONA… pic.twitter.com/peRS1bJNTm
Other recent polling has shown Trump leading in seven swing states, including Pennsylvania and Nevada.
A December poll from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult found Trump leading Biden 46 percent to 44 percent, within the survey’s ± three percent margin of error. The same poll showed Trump leading Biden 47 percent to 44 percent, within that category’s ± five percent margin of error.