Citi's Former Global Strat Head: Gold More Room To Run

“[Gold] is certainly a large position in my portfolio.” That was Matt King, former head of global strategy for Citibank, from last night’s deep dive into the global trade war.

ZeroHedge hosted King and Alastair Pinder, head of emerging markets and global equities for HSBC, to map out potential scenarios if the current trends of nationalism and trade warring continue. While not a guaranteed scenario… it would be good for gold and bad for U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar. The discussion was expertly moderated by friend of ZH and host at Real Vision Ash Bennington.

King and Pinder each came equipped with some ominous charts. Here is a brief snapshot:

Pinder on why the U.S. might be f***ed:

• OUTFLOWS out of U.S. equity markets increasing rapidly.

• Fewer tourists visiting American.

• Tariffs — if persistent — will greatly affect corporate earnings thus equity valuations.

  • But… even if tariffs don’t persist, corporate guidance is already factoring in their impact on earning expectations and stocks are forward looking.

• Some Trump positives — deregulation.

King on why the U.S. is definitely f***ed:

• Momentum in equities lost.

• Basis trade blowing up.

  • Made worse by HF leverage

• REAL RISK: long-only investors herded into “buying the dip” because of Fed policy.

• If they continue, tariffs will tank the US — our lack of manufacturing is to our benefit.

  • Cheap goods from asian sweatshops.

• Risk to $ and treasuries (trump threatening foreign bond holders with default).

• All of this leads to: MORE FLIGHT INTO GOLD

“Get out of the currency that’s trying to debase itself.”

King now runs Satori Insights so check out his services for institutional clients there.

The full one-hour debate is available to premium and professional subscribers here.