- US stocks were choppy and ultimately finished the session mildly lower with the small-cap Russell 2000 continuing its underperformance amid little in the way of macro drivers although the data releases showed Initial Jobless Claims disappointed and there were also higher Challenger Layoffs ahead of the looming NFP report on Friday. Sector-wise, upside was seen in Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Utilities, Financials and Staples but Materials, Healthcare and Industrials were pressured, while crypto stocks benefitted at the open following BTC hitting the 100k milestone, peaking at 103k, although the gains were erased as BTC pared the majority of the upside.
- USD weakened as Wednesday's soft-ISM Services continued to weigh and with the greenback also pressured after Initial Jobless Claims topped forecasts at 224k (exp. 215k, prev. 215k) although Continued Claims fell to 1.781mln (exp. 1.905mln, prev. 1.896mln), while the attention now shifts to Friday's NFP jobs data and several Fed speakers including Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack, and Daly.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings, Australian Home Loans, RBI Rate Decision, Supply from Australia.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include Japanese Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings, Australian Home Loans, RBI Rate Decision, Supply from Australia.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks were choppy and ultimately finished the session mildly lower with the small-cap Russell 2000 continuing its underperformance amid little in the way of macro drivers although the data releases showed Initial Jobless Claims disappointed and there were also higher Challenger Layoffs ahead of the looming NFP report on Friday. Sector-wise, upside was seen in Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Utilities, Financials and Staples but Materials, Healthcare and Industrials were pressured, while crypto stocks benefitted at the open following BTC hitting the 100k milestone, peaking at 103k, although the gains were erased as BTC pared the majority of the upside.
- SPX -0.19% at 6,075, NDX -0.31% at 21,425, DJIA -0.55% at 44,766, RUT -1.25% at 2,396.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
DATA RECAP
- US Challenger Layoffs (Nov) 57.727k (Prev. 55.597k)
- US Initial Jobless Claims 224.0k vs. Exp. 215.0k (Prev. 213.0k, Rev. 215k)
- US Continued Jobless Claims 1.871M vs. Exp. 1.905M (Prev. 1.907M, Rev. 1.896M)
FX
- USD weakened as Wednesday's soft-ISM Services continued to weigh and with the greenback also pressured after Initial Jobless Claims topped forecasts at 224k (exp. 215k, prev. 215k) although Continued Claims fell to 1.781mln (exp. 1.905mln, prev. 1.896mln), while the attention now shifts to Friday's NFP jobs data and several Fed speakers including Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack, and Daly.
- EUR benefitted from the dollar selling although the single currency remained confined to the 1.0500 handle following mixed data.
- GBP gained albeit with upside capped amid a lack of major catalysts, while BoE's Greene noted that services inflation has remained stubbornly high.
- JPY remained firmer after recent BoJ rhetoric but is off best levels after USD/JPY rebounded to back above the 150.00 level, while attention turns to Household Spending and Labour Cash Earnings data from Japan.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes bear steepened on and hit highs into settlement as focus turns to Friday's payrolls report.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices were choppy amid the deluge of OPEC+ updates although the benchmarks settled more-or-less flat ahead of US payrolls on Friday.
- OPEC+ delayed the start of planned output hikes to April 2025 and extended production cuts for OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries until 31st Dec 2026, while it extended the assessment period by the three independent sources to the beginning of November 2026 which is to be used as guidance for 2027 reference production levels. Furthermore, the UAE's required production has been increased by 300k BPD and the compensation period for overproducing countries will be extended until the end of June 2026.
- OPEC said Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman held a virtual meeting on the sidelines of the OPEC+ meeting.
- Russia's Novak said OPEC+ decided to prolong output cuts so as not to destabilise the market and the global oil market is stable thanks to OPEC+, while he expects oil demand to rise 1mln BPD in 2025 and noted they are seeing a balance of supply and demand.
- UAE's ADNOC set January Murban crude OSP at USD 72.81/bbl.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel's cabinet was reported to meet to discuss the proposal for an exchange deal with Hamas, according to Israeli media.
- Qatar resumed Hamas-Israel mediation in efforts to secure a truce, according to a source with knowledge of Gaza talks, cited by AFP.
- Syrian army said it lost control of the strategic central city of Hama, according to AFP.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong concern over the EU's plans to impose duties on Chinese titanium dioxide in 2025 and China hopes the EU will conduct its investigation in line with WTO rules and avoid abusing trade remedies. Furthermore, China will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.
- China’s Foreign Ministry decided to impose sanctions on 13 US military firms and executives from December 5th.
- China’s Vice-Premier met with Blackrock (BLK) CEO Fink and said China welcomes more foreign financial institutions to invest and do business in the country, according to Xinhua.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE's Greene said UK services inflation has remained stubbornly high, underpinned by wage growth and the supply side of the UK economy is weak.
- France's Le Pen said France can pass a budget for 2025 in the next few weeks and she sees no case for Macron to quit under current conditions, while she added that narrowing the deficit to 3% by 2029 is not credible and that a PM is likely to be announced this evening, according to Bloomberg.
- EU nations are discussing a EUR 500bln joint fund for common defence projects and arms procurement and will tap the bond market ahead of Trump's return to the White House, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
- German Industrial Orders MM (Oct) -1.5% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. 4.2%)
- German HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 38.0 (Prev. 40.2)
- French HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 43.7 (Prev. 42.2)
- EU HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 42.7 (Prev. 43.0)
- EU Retail Sales MM (Oct) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.5%)
- EU Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 2.9%, Rev. 3.0%)
