After signing orders imposing new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, President Trump delayed the Canada and Mexico tariffs until March 4. While a further extension is likely, Goldman thinks that the tariff risk for both countries is likely to remain until at least the conclusion of the USMCA review slated for mid-2026. Meanwhile, a 10% tariff on imports from China took effect February 4, and Goldman expects tariffs on imports from China to rise further, for a total increase of around 20%, which in the context of what we dubbed "the most important trade chart in the world"...
... is a lot, but nowhere near enough where it has to be to rearrange global trade to what Trump wants to achieve. The bank also anticipates that Trump will also slap a new tariff on auto imports from the EU.
