WTF is going on...
We have Kamala-nomics propoagandists expounding that price-controls are good for deflation and half of America believes it...
And now, we have US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month - at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns...
...and the head of The Conference Board says 'nothing to see here'...
“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
For context, outside of the great financial crisis, this is the worst decline in LEI since the mid '70s!!!
She goes on to explain just what a shitshow the data is...
“In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread."
...but no recession, nope!!
"These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to slow over the next few quarters as consumers and businesses continue cutting spending and investments. US real GDP is expected to expand at a pace of 0.6 percent annualized in Q3 2024 and 1 percent annualized in Q4."
And what is behind the 'no recession' call... US equity strength!!
So, to summarize - almost all the macro data signals weakening growth for years... but because stocks are up (and credit spreads down), there's no recession anywhere on the horizon!!??
